The ECB Podcast

Klaas Knot, Chair of the Financial Stability Board, President of De Nederlandsche Bank, and member of the ECB Governing Council, and Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, discuss the challenges facing the international financial system at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Published on 6 July 2024 and recorded on 3 July 2024. 2024 ECB Forum on Central Banking https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html The ECB Podcast: The road ahead: is there room for optimism? https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod240627_episode86.en.html The ECB Podcast: Financial Stability in a ChatGPT world https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod240517_episode84.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

We live in uncertain times. Military conflict, including in Europe, is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. People are suffering. And our economies are also affected, which is a specific challenge for central banks. Our co-host Paul Gordon discusses this with Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 5 July 2024 and recorded on 2 July 2024. 1:02 A look at today’s geopolitical environment Geopolitical risk can materialise unexpectedly. What are the risks in these uncertain times? How is the geopolitical landscape changing? 2:17 The price of war What does military conflict mean for the economy? And how do events in other parts of the world affect us? 6:08 Challenges for central banks Wars have an impact on our economies, including on inflation. This poses a challenge for central banks. 12:13 Managing geopolitical risks How can we manage geopolitical risks better? Is more independence the only way? 16:17 Our guest’s hot tip Moritz Schularick shares his hot tip with our listeners. The ECB Forum on Central Banking https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20240701_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Federle, J, A Meier, G Müller, W Mutschler and M Schularick (2024), ‘DP18834 The Price of War‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18834. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp18834 The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism by Martin Wolf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

ECB President Christine Lagarde, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Governor of the Banco Central do Brasil Roberto Campos Neto sat down together to discuss the steps they’ve taken to fight inflation and reflect on the road ahead during the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Recorded on 2 July 2024 and published on 3 July 2024. 2024 ECB Forum on Central Banking https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html The ECB Podcast - The road ahead: is there room for optimism? https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod240627_episode86.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

We just lowered our interest rates, as inflation is falling. But what was behind this decision? What is the state of our economy? And more importantly, what comes next? Our new co-host Paul Gordon discusses these questions with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 27 June 2024 and recorded on 18 June 2024. 1:13 Our latest monetary policy decision Why did the ECB’s Governing Council decide to lower its key interest rates? What were the determining factors? 5:10 The state of our economy How has inflation evolved in recent months? Is the economy recovering? And how have wages and employment been affected? 8:36 Next steps What are our next monetary policy steps? How will current uncertainty affect future decisions? 11:18 The ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal What can we expect from this year’s ECB Forum on Central Banking? And what is Chief Economist Philip R. Lane most looking forward? 15:45 Our guest’s hot tip Chief Economist Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip with our listeners. Philip R. Lane interview with Financial Times, 27 May 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2024/html/ecb.in240527~ffaddc865d.en.html Philip R. Lane speech on Monetary policy and the disinflation process, 11 June 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2024/html/ecb.sp240611~caf9681480.en.html The ECB Podcast: Quo vadis, inflation? March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod240325_episode81.en.html ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 – programme https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html Young Economist Prize 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/ecbforum/YE_competition/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

President Christine Lagarde discusses recent ECB monetary policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments, inflation projections, and economic growth expectations. The Governing Council's commitment to a data-centered strategy and flexibility in reaching inflation goals are highlighted.

What does the rapid advance of AI mean for our financial system? And how is financial stability affected by geopolitical risk? Our host Stefania Secola puts these questions to expert John Fell in The ECB Podcast’s regular look at financial stability in the euro area. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 17 May 2024 and recorded on 10 May 2024. In this episode: 01:01 – How stable is our financial system right now? Our latest financial stability assessment is more positive, but just how resilient is our financial system to shocks? 04:56 – What concerns does geopolitical risk raise? How can geopolitical risk affect markets, banks and non-banks like investment funds, and what can financial institutions do to manage it? 09:55 – How can AI help the financial system? Artificial intelligence offers promising ways to improve efficiency, customer service and risk management. 13:32 – Can AI be a source of systemic risk? Widespread use of AI tools and reliance on a small number of suppliers could lead to financial stability risks. 19:13 – Our guest’s hot tip Financial stability expert John Fell shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further reading: Financial Stability Review, May 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Turbulent times: geopolitical risk and its impact on euro area financial stability (special feature A) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202405~7f212449c8.en.html#toc33 The rise of artificial intelligence: benefits and risks for financial stability (special feature B) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202405~7f212449c8.en.html#toc34 The ECB Podcast: When the yin meets the yang: resilience in gloomy times, December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod231202_episode74.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

What are inflation expectations? How do our personal experiences shape them? And why do they matter to central banks? In this episode of The ECB Podcast, our host Stefania Secola and researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos discuss how people form expectations about inflation and how we measure them. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 26 April 2024 and recorded on 19 April 2024. In this episode: 01:35 – Inflation expectations What are inflation expectations, and why do they matter for central banks? How do people form such expectations? 9:25 – The impact on prices Can inflation expectations shape the prices we end up paying? How might personal perceptions influence wages? 11:30 – Measuring inflation expectations Why is it important to measure inflation expectations, and how do we do it at the ECB? What were the findings of our latest survey? 16:38 – The role of the ECB What can the ECB do to inform people’s inflation expectations? And what role can communication play in this? 21:15 – Our guests’ hot tips ECB researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos share their hot tips and some final thoughts with our listeners. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html Working Paper: Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings, March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2914~d6a8832bf5.en.pdf?e655c8b68e7c2fb096387a4da34c42e6 Research Bulletin: Recent changes in consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations – a detailed look, February 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb230224~558beec65c.en.html Economic Bulletin issue 3/2024: Trust in the ECB – insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey, April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202403.en.html#toc24 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: - how the economy is performing - how we expect prices to develop - the risks to the economic outlook - the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 April 2024 Additional material Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2024/html/mopo_statement_explained_april.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240411~9974984b58.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240411~1345644915.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240411~58dd9ec73d.en.pdf?566c397f0364d717913bf7770e67bf17 European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

We have made good progress in our fight against inflation since we started to tighten our monetary policy in 2022. Where do we stand right now? And what are we keeping a close eye on in the economy? Host Stefania Secola discusses these topics with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. They also talk about the ECB’s recent changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 March 2024 and recorded on 21 March 2024. In this episode: 01:23 – Inflation right now How has inflation evolved since its peak in late 2022? What is the outlook for the year ahead and what will shape our future decisions? 03:30 – Wages and inflation How are rising wages affecting inflation, and is the situation the same across all euro area countries? 09:54 – The state of the labour market Unemployment is historically low, but economic growth is projected to be lower than in previous years. What might the coming months hold for the labour market? 13:54 – The ECB’s operational framework Why have we reviewed our operational framework for implementing monetary policy? How does it help our work to keep prices stable? 19:02 – Our guest’s hot tip Our guest, Philip R. Lane, encourages our listeners to read a paper that looks at the macroeconometric models used at the ECB for forecasting and policy analysis. Further Reading: The ECB Podcast: Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op344~53b9e2aa4d.en.pdf?14821c7f99280514dbdaa26114c4f565 Press release: ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240313_1~a3a50a9add.en.html Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024, Article 1: The impact of recent shocks and ongoing structural changes on euro area productivity growth https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202402_01~d63ecff49c.en.html Press release: Monetary policy decisions (7 March 2024) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

President Lagarde discusses the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates, aiming for future growth and 2% inflation. They cover economic performance, price expectations, risks, and financial conditions. Analysis includes economic activity, inflation, employment trends, risks, and interest rate decisions.