Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Pushkin Industries
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Mentioned books
30 snips
Dec 5, 2024 • 44min
Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies
Dive into a vibrant discussion about Hunter Biden's pardon and the complex world of political accountability. The hosts explore game theory's role in holiday gift-giving, emphasizing thoughtful presents over mere materialism. Personal anecdotes reveal how to select meaningful gifts for different personalities, while quirky tales add humor to the subject. Discover strategies for navigating the challenges of choosing the right gift, fostering real connections, and even learn about a fun poker meetup in Las Vegas!
15 snips
Nov 28, 2024 • 43min
Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel
Discover optimal travel strategies from seasoned travelers. Learn the best times to arrive at airports and how to navigate dining choices. Hear personal anecdotes about their biggest travel missteps. Dive into a scandal in academic psychology and explore issues of trust and integrity in research. Uncover the pitfalls of modern academia and the importance of maintaining ethical standards. Plus, celebrate philanthropic efforts through charitable events while discussing the challenges of targeted advertising in reaching suitable audiences.
Nov 21, 2024 • 39min
How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions
The hosts dive into game theory as they analyze how moderate Republican senators navigate Trump's controversial cabinet picks. They unpack the political risks involved and the tension between party loyalty and personal conviction. Switching gears to the NFL, they highlight the new Guardian Caps intended to reduce concussions. Despite their promise, many players resist wearing them, driven by cultural pressures around toughness. The discussion challenges societal beliefs that impact both sports safety and political decision-making.
Nov 14, 2024 • 38min
Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?
The hosts delve into how figures like Elon Musk are shaping the Trump Administration's influence. Discussions touch on the upcoming 2026 elections and the hurdles Democrats face in this evolving political landscape. They also blend political insights with poker strategies, reflecting on high-stakes tournament experiences and the psychology of gameplay. Key decision-making processes in poker are analyzed, emphasizing strategies for success and the challenges posed by fatigue and adaptation in both politics and gaming.
14 snips
Nov 6, 2024 • 40min
How Trump Won
Nate and Maria dive into the surprising dynamics of the recent election results, highlighting polling errors and the intricacies of prediction markets. They discuss demographic shifts and how Trump's leadership resonates with diverse voters. Insights into the effectiveness of polling methods emerge, questioning traditional forecasting approaches. Additionally, they explore the implications of federal appointments during transitions and tease political predictions, linking poker strategy with electoral tactics. It’s a fascinating blend of politics and data-driven analysis!
Nov 4, 2024 • 31min
What to Look for on Election Day
As election day approaches, experts dissect voter turnout trends and the latest polling data. They focus on pivotal swing states and the impact of demographics like Latino voters. The discussion highlights the dynamics of prediction markets versus traditional polls, revealing the complexities of interpreting results. Predictions unveil potential close contests and the risks of election disputes. Ultimately, they stress the necessity of active voting, especially in crucial regions, encouraging every voice to participate in shaping democracy.
6 snips
Oct 31, 2024 • 43min
The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns
The podcast explores the pivotal decisions of this year's presidential campaigns, scrutinizing both the best and worst moves made by Harris, Trump, and Biden. Delving into the influence of celebrity endorsements, it highlights how changing voter demographics complicate campaign strategies. The hosts emphasize the importance of decision-making processes over outcomes, offering insights into the volatile polling landscape. With a light-hearted touch, they also discuss the contrasting campaign strategies and the unpredictable nature of voter behavior as election day looms.
Oct 30, 2024 • 46min
Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
In this discussion, renowned election modeler Nate Silver and skilled poker player Maria Konnikova dive into the intriguing world of political prediction markets. They reveal how these platforms have surged in popularity, allowing traders to make bets on election outcomes. The conversation touches on the accuracy of these markets compared to traditional polling, the dynamics of betting strategies, and the fascinating interplay between expert insights and public sentiment. Silver and Konnikova also share tips on making sense of the odds as the presidential race heats up.
Oct 24, 2024 • 48min
How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers
Daryl Morey, the President of Basketball Operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, shares his innovative approach to building a championship team through analytics and game theory. He discusses the intricacies of team dynamics and the value of superstar players, revealing strategic insights like the two-for-one scoring technique. The conversation also touches on parallels between basketball and poker, emphasizing emotional detachment in decision-making. Moreover, they delve into the 'hot hand' phenomenon and how data shapes performance in high-pressure situations.
Oct 17, 2024 • 43min
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet
Maria shares her strategy behind winning her first World Series of Poker Bracelet, highlighting critical hands and decision-making moments. The conversation shifts to the significance of the Nobel Peace Prize and pressing issues around nuclear disarmament. They reflect on the historical context of nuclear warfare and its implications for today's world. Additionally, the pair discusses the volatile political landscape and whether Democrats should be concerned about their current standing as the election approaches.
