Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
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Dec 12, 2024 The hosts hand out their first annual Riskies awards, celebrating the best and worst decisions of 2024. Highlights include a daring trader's 'Hero Call' and a political blunder. They dive into cognitive biases impacting political choices, like the sunk cost fallacy, while also exploring notable moves in sports betting. Plus, there's a light-hearted poker update and a fascinating discussion on the cognitive benefits of learning multiple languages. It's a blend of strategy, insight, and entertainment!
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Theo's Big Bet
- Theo, the "French whale," bet heavily on Trump winning the 2024 election on Polymarket.
- This "hero call" earned him substantial profits, defying predictions.
Bitcoin Bear Market
- Selling Bitcoin during the 2024 bear market was a bad move.
- The cyclical nature of cryptocurrency suggests holding is wiser.
Barbie's Oscar Shutout
- Greta Gerwig's "Barbie" was unexpectedly shut out at the Oscars.
- This "cooler hand" highlights unpredictable award outcomes.