Dive into the thrilling world of prediction markets and poker strategies! The hosts tackle the recent presidential debate, emphasizing communication styles and psychological tactics. They also explore the complexities of election polling and the impact of celebrity endorsements. Plus, a humorous recounting of a poker tournament experience reveals the intricacies of luck and strategy. The discussion wraps up with insights into the new Mystery Bounty format, enhancing both gameplay and community in the poker scene. A mix of data, intuition, and entertainment awaits!

Brian Koppelman, a renowned writer and producer known for 'Rounders' and 'Billions', shares his insights on navigating risks in the creative industry. He discusses how to determine which risks are worth taking and the importance of hard work in offsetting potential failures. Koppelman reflects on a personal story about betting big on 'Billions' and emphasizes the significance of resilience, strategic decision-making, and the balance between creativity and financial stability. He also highlights how collaboration and personal growth play vital roles in overcoming setbacks.

Tim Harford, an author and host of Cautionary Tales, dives deep into the riveting worlds of historical con artists like Sam Israel III and John Law. He reveals the psychological dynamics of Ponzi schemes and the motivations behind faking one's own death. With anecdotes that showcase the absurdity of deception, Harford discusses the risks of overconfidence in finance and the complex interplay between crime and decision-making. His insights provide a captivating look at the lessons buried within tales of fraud.

Kamala Harris, the Vice President and a prominent figure in American politics, discusses her campaign and recent policy proposals. She dives into the pressing issue of price gouging and inflation affecting everyday Americans. The conversation reveals how tax policies, particularly on tips, could reshape economic landscapes. Harris also tackles the psychological biases women face in leadership roles and examines the dynamics of her presidential bid amidst evolving political trends. Tune in for insights on navigating today's political challenges!

Maria interviews Nate, an author whose recent book, "On the Edge," dives deep into risk-taking and decision-making. They discuss extreme risk-takers and their successes and failures, and Nate shares insights from betting a million dollars on sports. The conversation touches on the differences between analytical risk-takers like poker players and venture capitalists, and the societal implications of these behaviors. They also explore the intricate balance of luck and skill, using personal anecdotes to highlight the complexities of gambling.

Bill Perkins, a legendary energy trader with a unique approach to risk, dives into the art of risk-taking in business, poker, and life. He shares insights on the emotional stakes of decision-making and the importance of balancing calculations with personal values. The conversation touches on the Kelly criterion for managing bets, the psychological barriers to embracing failure, and the thrill of art collecting at auctions. Perkins emphasizes how unrepeatable crises shape our choices and enrich our experiences.

Jonathan Tamayo, a World Series of Poker Main Event winner, shares insights from his recent controversial victory. He discusses the intense scrutiny of poker's integrity and the complications surrounding player behavior and technology use. Meanwhile, Nate and Maria dive into Kamala Harris' political odds, exploring the impact of misinformation on voter sentiment and the unique challenges faced by women and minorities in politics. The blend of poker drama and political intrigue makes for a captivating conversation!

Expert Matt Glassman joins the hosts to discuss Kamala Harris's rise in party politics, her potential running mate, and her chances against Trump. They analyze the implications of her selection, internal campaign dynamics, and the strategic implications of betting on her. The episode explores the factors contributing to Harris's strong position, potential risks, and the political strategy behind her candidacy.

J.D. Vance and hosts discuss conspiracy theories, Trump's election impact. Nate's jury duty experience highlighted. They also touch on Biden's party dynamics and political strategies within the Democrats.

Nate and Maria discuss strategies to convince Joe Biden to drop out of the race, estimating his chances against Trump and Harris's chances if she replaces him. They also give an update on the World Series of Poker Main Event.