Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Pushkin Industries
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Oct 30, 2024 • 46min
Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
In this discussion, renowned election modeler Nate Silver and skilled poker player Maria Konnikova dive into the intriguing world of political prediction markets. They reveal how these platforms have surged in popularity, allowing traders to make bets on election outcomes. The conversation touches on the accuracy of these markets compared to traditional polling, the dynamics of betting strategies, and the fascinating interplay between expert insights and public sentiment. Silver and Konnikova also share tips on making sense of the odds as the presidential race heats up.
Oct 24, 2024 • 48min
How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers
Daryl Morey, the President of Basketball Operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, shares his innovative approach to building a championship team through analytics and game theory. He discusses the intricacies of team dynamics and the value of superstar players, revealing strategic insights like the two-for-one scoring technique. The conversation also touches on parallels between basketball and poker, emphasizing emotional detachment in decision-making. Moreover, they delve into the 'hot hand' phenomenon and how data shapes performance in high-pressure situations.
Oct 17, 2024 • 43min
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet
Maria shares her strategy behind winning her first World Series of Poker Bracelet, highlighting critical hands and decision-making moments. The conversation shifts to the significance of the Nobel Peace Prize and pressing issues around nuclear disarmament. They reflect on the historical context of nuclear warfare and its implications for today's world. Additionally, the pair discusses the volatile political landscape and whether Democrats should be concerned about their current standing as the election approaches.
Oct 9, 2024 • 44min
The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
Dive into the unexpected world of election betting as the hosts share Nate's bold $100k wager on Florida. Discover the impact of poker bots on online gaming and how they’re reshaping the landscape. The discussion heats up as they confront the pitfalls of AI-generated misinformation. They also explore the integrity issues in poker and the urgency for accountability in both gaming and political forecasting. Plus, ponder the implications of recent AI advancements and the energy challenges they pose.
Oct 3, 2024 • 49min
How to Win Bets and Influence Elections
Caroline Ellison's sentencing sparks a deep dive into her role in the FTX scandal—victim or villain? The hosts explore the psychology of risk and accountability amid chaotic finance. With elections on the horizon, they reveal unconventional ways to influence outcomes beyond just monetary donations. Humorously chaotic state names contrast the serious dissection of polling data and campaign strategies. Plus, celebrity endorsements and their impact are analyzed, alongside the legacies of gamblers lost this week.
Sep 26, 2024 • 45min
Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model
The discussion kicks off with the outrageous tales of Anna Sorokin, highlighting her glamorous deception as a con artist infiltrating elite society. The hosts then dive into the intricacies of rational voting, weighing self-interest against societal welfare. With a focus on the unique Maine-Nebraska model, they explore the evolving political landscape and the ethical complexities of political messaging. The conversation wraps up by examining the role of deception in celebrity culture and its implications for accountability in society.
4 snips
Sep 19, 2024 • 45min
Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election?
A legal battle is underway as a prediction market company challenges the government on election betting. The hosts discuss the pros and cons of allowing bets on elections, comparing it to sports betting. They explore how perceptions of election closeness influence voter turnout, especially in critical swing states. With humor and personal anecdotes, they tackle the ethical implications of political betting and its potential to shape voter behavior and market integrity. Get ready for a thought-provoking yet entertaining dive into a controversial topic!
Sep 12, 2024 • 39min
Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker
Dive into the thrilling world of prediction markets and poker strategies! The hosts tackle the recent presidential debate, emphasizing communication styles and psychological tactics. They also explore the complexities of election polling and the impact of celebrity endorsements. Plus, a humorous recounting of a poker tournament experience reveals the intricacies of luck and strategy. The discussion wraps up with insights into the new Mystery Bounty format, enhancing both gameplay and community in the poker scene. A mix of data, intuition, and entertainment awaits!
Sep 5, 2024 • 48min
Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian Koppelman
Brian Koppelman, a renowned writer and producer known for 'Rounders' and 'Billions', shares his insights on navigating risks in the creative industry. He discusses how to determine which risks are worth taking and the importance of hard work in offsetting potential failures. Koppelman reflects on a personal story about betting big on 'Billions' and emphasizes the significance of resilience, strategic decision-making, and the balance between creativity and financial stability. He also highlights how collaboration and personal growth play vital roles in overcoming setbacks.
Aug 29, 2024 • 55min
Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest on the Election
Tim Harford, an author and host of Cautionary Tales, dives deep into the riveting worlds of historical con artists like Sam Israel III and John Law. He reveals the psychological dynamics of Ponzi schemes and the motivations behind faking one's own death. With anecdotes that showcase the absurdity of deception, Harford discusses the risks of overconfidence in finance and the complex interplay between crime and decision-making. His insights provide a captivating look at the lessons buried within tales of fraud.
