Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recent controversies highlight the Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies, particularly a case of deportation without legal protections. The discussion emphasizes the ethical and legal ramifications of undermining due process. Emotional topics like immigration may influence public opinion more effectively than abstract concepts like tariffs. The conversation also touches on political messaging strategies and the long-term consequences of funding cuts to science and education, raising concerns about institutional integrity and future governance.

The discussion dives into AI 2027, a report brimming with both hopeful and alarming predictions for our future. Topics include the threat of rogue AI misleading humans and the impact of US-China relations on technology's evolution. With debates on ethical AI, the potential for dystopian scenarios, and the risks of misinformation, the hosts dissect how human nature complicates our relationship with AI. They also highlight the challenges of political governance in exchanging innovative ideas and the delicate balance between AI's promises and perils.

Nate and Maria delve into the implications of Trump's latest tariffs, unpacking their impact on the market and consumer pricing. They blend light-hearted sports commentary with serious insights on potential recession indicators and the Federal Reserve's challenges. The discussion highlights bipartisan struggles in Congress regarding tariff legislation and the resulting effects on businesses and consumer behavior. Additionally, they emphasize the importance of individual actions in advocating for better trade policies amidst economic uncertainty.

In a lively discussion, the hosts dive into the tensions between the Ivy League and Trump, debating the need for schools to defend academic freedom. They also tackle the bankruptcy of 23andMe, exploring the privacy risks of sharing genetic data. The conversation shifts to the ethics of personal testing and the societal implications of genetic information. Finally, they emphasize the value of time over money, highlighting the importance of balancing work with personal enjoyment and making thoughtful decisions.

A revealing discussion unfolds about a major report highlighting the risks of group chat dynamics in national security. The hosts dive into their playful March Madness bracket rivalry and the puzzling age restrictions for joining the WNBA. They tackle gender disparities in basketball, critiquing the outdated policies that hinder female athletes. With insights on sports betting strategies and the true value of playing professionally versus obtaining a degree, the conversation blends humor with serious reflections on the world of sports.

Dive into the thrilling world of college basketball as the hosts tackle March Madness with a blend of data and instinct. They outline Nate's innovative predictive model while Maria relies on vibes for one of her brackets, showcasing different strategies. Enjoy their banter on potential Final Four candidates and the excitement of upsets. The discussion highlights team rivalries and humorous anecdotes, making it a fun take on the tournament. With friendly wagers and superstitions tossed in, the anticipation for the games is palpable!

Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have? Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent big win… that was actually a loss. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This discussion dives deep into Trump’s tariffs through the lens of game theory, highlighting the complexities of cooperative versus zero-sum strategies. The hosts explore the implications of revenge and altruism in international relations, particularly with U.S.-Ukraine dynamics. They also dissect the audacious return of Billy McFarland and the Fyre Festival, examining the psychology behind con artists and the allure of deception. Prepare for humor and thought-provoking insights on market reactions and decision-making in a fluctuating economic landscape.

Nate and Maria tackle the intriguing topic of low-probability events, like the asteroid that nearly collided with Earth, highlighting how we often misjudge risks. They share insights on the complexities of existential risks, including parallels with artificial intelligence. The discussion lightens up with poker drama, revealing the mental strategies behind high-stakes tournaments and the art of decision-making in games like Rock, Paper, Scissors. Expect humor and thoughtful reflections on handling uncertainty in life and in leisure!