Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)

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Jul 10, 2025
Join author and journalist David Zweig, known for his book 'An Abundance of Caution', as he dives into the perplexing decision-making during the COVID pandemic. He discusses the controversial school closures and the impact of political polarization on health policies. Zweig reveals how cognitive biases skewed perceptions and the pitfalls of relying on flawed models. The conversation also critiques the misuse of the precautionary principle and highlights ethical concerns surrounding vulnerable populations, all while reflecting on lessons learned for future public health crises.
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ANECDOTE

Realizing Schools Won't Reopen

  • David Zweig experienced early skepticism when schools remained closed despite reduced COVID cases.
  • He vividly recalls the moment he realized schools wouldn't reopen even after "flattening the curve."
INSIGHT

Europe's School Reopening Ignored

  • Europe reopened schools early with no observed spike in COVID cases.
  • US ignored these signals, missing key evidence that schools weren't driving the pandemic.
INSIGHT

Politics Shaped COVID Messaging

  • US COVID response heavily politicized, often as reaction against Trump.
  • This polarization shaped public health and media messaging, limiting diverse viewpoints.
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