Yet Another Value Podcast

Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy Chapters0:00 Intro1:55 Extra Disclosures3:10 AMPY Overview6:25 Diving into the spill9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-1039:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?56:00 Tim's closing thoughts

Leo Kang, author of the excellent Plum Capital Substack, comes on to discuss his thesis on Atento (ATTO). With 3 legacy private equity holders owning more than 60% of the stock, Leo think the company is set for a sale, and a cheap multiple, continued operating momentum, and health dose of leverage could create for serious upside in a process.Leo's ATTO write up: https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/at... My ATTO notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chapters0:00 Intro1:30 ATTO overview3:15 ATTO's ownership history7:45 The "Big 3's" incentive to sell9:20 Pushing back on the sales incentive13:50 Discussing valuation15:30 ATTO's operating momentum18:30 What does ATTO do?22:30 How does ATTO compete with?24:30 Is there a trend towards insourcing costumer service?28:15 What happens if ATTO's loses the Telefonica contract?33:30 Can we read anything into ATTO's lack of capital returns?37:55 Discussing the upside from the Telefonica contract40:20 Comping peer multiples43:05 Does the Telefonica contract line up well with a sales process?46:25 ATTO's attempts to move into the U.S.50:45 ATTO's foreign exchange risk52:55 Closing thoughts

Ben Claremon, Partner at Cove Street Capital, discusses his thesis on Lumen. Lumen is a complicated story and a bit of a battleground stock, but Ben think the company is trading at a large discount to their asset value and is making moves to unlock that value.Ben's first YAVP appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdUBen's Compounders podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Qbcrw84MDaJ3CZUNuqOxu?si=vD-uIjqVR4G_SFwH_ALVEg&dl_branch=1Chapters0:00 Intro1:35 Lumen Overview5:55 Why didn't Lumens' old management team believe in Fiber?13:30 Discussing the proxy statement and management incentives19:15 How can telecom investors get over their Lumen baggage?25:15 Looking at Lumen as a special situation35:00 What would Lumen look like if they sold all of their consumer business?37:05 Lumen's valuation and sum of the parts39:15 Lumen's looming dividend cut?47:00 Government subsidies (CAF going away; RDOF replacing it?)54:40 Why invest in Lumen vs. a cleaner story like Frontier (FYBR)1:03:25 Closing thoughts

Edwin Dorsey, founder of The Bear Cave, discusses his bearish note on Clear Secure (YOU). Bulls think Clear is a product members love with a clear moat and a long growth runway; Edwin sees a company with lots of consumer complaints that has been around for almost two decades and is still losing money while losing economics to key partners like airports. The Bear Cave's YOU note: https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/pr...My Clear tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Edwin's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chapters0:00 Intro1:20 Clear Overview3:25 What is the crux of the bear thesis?4:55 What's wrong with Clear's business model?9:20 Why won't American partner with Clear?11:45 Discussing the San Jose concession13:55 Clear's NPS score vs. their BBB rating21:10 How Clear calculates their member count23:15 Are Clear's churn numbers as good as they look?27:00 Clear's strategic fit in bundles29:55 Clear's growth opportunities33:20 Why wouldn't Apple or Google win the "entry" game versus Clear?34:15 Is Clear a COVID beneficiary?36:30 Can clear become a 12x/day product?41:20 Clear's history of retaining key partners43:30 Will Clear run afoul of airlines in the long term?48:30 Closing thoughts

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel discuss their new position in AAMC. AAMC is an illiquid microcap, which significantly increases its risk, but Jeff and Thomas think the company is likely to have a successful settlement of their preferred stock. After settlement, AAMC should have net cash per share in excess of today's share price, and then the company could make a significantly accrettive acquisition.Jeff's original tweet on AAMC: https://twitter.com/ragnarisapirate/status/1433519100152721412?s=20Jeff's YAVP first appearance on THRY: https://youtu.be/196QthwtDMkThomas's first YAVP appearance on GOED: https://youtu.be/eKnnl7AaMMAChapters0:00 Intro1:30 AAMC overview6:40 Some extra AAMC goodies7:25 Why will Luxor settle their prefs?11:40 Bill Erbey's background16:15 Discussing a potential crypto acquisition23:10 How a crypto transaction could rhyme with SPRT28:00 Discussing a fix and flip34:55 Other possible deals36:55 The longshot Erbey / Blackrock lawsuit41:55 AAMC's cash burn43:30 Could AAMC's new execs reinforce the potential upside here?45:00 Closing thoughts

Kyler Hasson, Portfolio Manager at Delta Investment Management, discusses our mutual position / bag-holding in Altice. Key topics include what bulls could be missing, the differences between Altice and Charter, and how regulation could impact cable.My tweet thread on ATUS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1435228524399448065?s=20Kyler's write up: https://concentratedcompounding.substack.com/p/alticeMy write up: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/altice-is-the-best-large-cap-stockChapters0:00 Intro1:23 ATUS overview2:25 Comping Altice today to Charter in 20184:00 What are we seeing that the stock market is missing7:55 How much weight should we put on Altice's bad quarter11:30 Does Altice management have a handle on the business?21:30 Discussing CABO's valuation versus the major cable peers23:00 How Altice's pricing, cost, and FTTH strategy differs from peers28:00 What if Altice needs to roll back prices or invest back into opex?31:00 Could Altice pull a Dell?37:55 More on Altice's FTTH strategy44:00 Talking about Altice's different parts47:45 What could break the cable thesis?56:00 Quick discussion of satellite / Starlink internet risk58:30 Cable regulatory concerns1:04:30 Kyler's closing thoughts

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for uranium. Key topics include why this time could be different, breaking down the supply / demand curve that has him so excited, and discussing why NexGen (NXE) is such an interesting way to play uranium.Brian's twitter account: https://twitter.com/brianlaksKuppy's uranium shortage post: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...Chapters0:00 Intro1:30 Uranium overview2:35 What got Old West so excited about uranium?5:05 Discussing the uranium cost curve7:35 Uranium supply / demand imbalance10:15 Uranium's cycles since 200015:15 Why is the cycle happening now?19:15 What's to stop supply from coming on if prices start to rise?25:40 When and how do mothballed facilities start coming back on?30:00 The Sprott Uranium Trust40:20 Nexgen (NXE) overview46:20 Nexgen's low cost mine49:10 Nexgen's timeline to completing their mine52:55 Discussing Nexgen's uranium price assumptions56:30 Why won't this go into mine development hell?58:40 Nexgen's base case upsideSHOW LESS

Jon Cukiewar, Founder of Sohra Peak Capital, discusses his ivnestment thesis for goeasy (in Canada under $GSY; in U.S. under $EHMEF). Jon does a deep dive into the company's history before explaining how they can get such great returns and why he sees continued strong growth in their future.Jon's twitter: https://twitter.com/JonCukierwarSohra Peak's website: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/disclaimer Chapters0:00 Intro1:40 goeasy overview and background15:00 Discussing goeasy's valuation versus U.S. peers18:15 How can goeasy consistently get over 20% returns on equity28:40 goeasy's strong capital allocation30:45 Why is goeasy paying a dividend?35:55 How do goeasy's borrowers perform when the economy takes a turn?38:35 Regulatory environment and concerns43:15 What's goeasy's advantage as they move into new lending niches?44:45 Revisiting valuation / how does this outperform going forward?55:25 Discussing the lendcare acquisition59;40 Jon's closing thoughts

Thomas Braziel, President of 507 Capital, discusses his investment in $GOED. Key topics include addressing the (many) red flags around the investment, how Thomas found the company and why he likes the set up so much, and why investing in stocks with some hair on them can deliver serious alpha.Thomas's twitter: https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel My notes on GOED: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1430382893692506112?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:20 Thomas's legendary Ethenex trade3:10 $GOED overview8:00 Background to the set up / how the warrants came publicly traded11:00 $GOED merger / financing background14:00 The massive stock offering discussion17:00 Do you believe $GOED's claims that they have sourcing and distribution advantages?20:25 Why was AC the seller instead of the buyer?24:30 Do you worry about $GOED auditor switch / financial statements?27:30 Why did GOED keep recutting the deal to give AC more cash?31:20 GOED's rebate accounting34:20 Capital allocation going forward37:25 General discussion of why buying stocks with hair is riskier but carries huge potential rewards38:30 GOED management's alignment40:05 GOED's activist potential43:10 Quickly painting a reasonable bull / valuation case48:05 General discussion of swinging hard when you find a good pitch49:30 How capital light will GOED be?52:10 Quick Tesla discussion53:25 Thomas's closing thoughts (and a quick ICLTF mention!)

Louis Camhi, a private investor, discusses his thesis for Origin Materials (ORGN). Origin is a recent deSPAC that has seen a brutal sell off, but Louis thinks the company represents a hyper skewed risk reward, albeit one with a VC style downside (i.e. if it doesn't work out, they'll be worth basically nothing). Louis breaks down what Origin does, why he's so confident that they can build their plans on time and on budget, the demand he sees for their products, and a bunch of other pieces of the Origin thesis. Louis's twitter handle: https://twitter.com/valwithcatalystChapters0:00 Intro1:25 Origin overview4:05 How Origin's product is carbon negative6:10 Discussing Origin's SPAC sponsor credentials9:10 Why were these the right sponsors to take Origin public?11:25 Timeline for Origin to get to revenue and scale up14:45 Origin 1 and 2 cost and backlog strength18:40 Could Origin's backlog be impacted by construction delays?20:30 How unique is Origin's process and technology25:40 Discussing Origin's cost and if this can work without getting an "ESG" premium price27:50 Construction cost risk32:25 Various upside and downside risks35:00 Origin's financing plans39:40 Origin's long term margin outlook41:25 Why didn't the SPAC sponsors put equity into the deal?46:25 Comping Origin to other peak SPACmania buzzy deals55:00 What other deSPACs are catching Louis's eye58:20 Quick Katapult and Ironsource mention1:00:35 A little longer ALIT mention