Yet Another Value Podcast

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-wChapters0:00 Intro2:20 Tin market overview4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?13:25 Tin supply dynamics20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?35:15 Alphamin overview41:10 Alphamin's expansion project44:50 The strategic review process52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?1:16:15 Closing thoughts

Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.comDoug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=wChapters0:00 Intro3:00 Why semis are so compelling 4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?44:40 Diving into RMBS56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?1:14:30 closing thoughts

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Brunswick (BC). BC is a boat manufacturer, and PJ thinks they are too cheap and the market is missing how much more economically resilient the business is today than it was ~10 years ago.My BC notes: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1529822951016497153?s=20&t=lAssCowdwRLleeF1c1ZVEwPJ's BC write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/brunswick-corporation-1-pager-summary?r=1g9l5j&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webChapters0:00 Intro3:25 BC overview5:15 What is PJ seeing in BC that the market's missing?8:50 Is BC about to run into COVID pull forward headwinds?13:25 Sizing the boat market16:20 BC's recession risk20:10 BC's P&A business and recurring revenue26:00 Capital allocation and M&A multiples30:20 BC's vertically integrated model: advantage or overblown?33:50 BC's Freedom Boat Club optionality38:45 Share buybacks and insider ownership42:30 BC's improving free cash flow45:15 Is BC bringing capacity on right as demand falls off?47:30 Interest rate, inflation, and financing risks51:15 Rising gas prices effect on boat demand54:20 Vontier (VNT) and closing thoughts

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.Michael's T. Hasegawa write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-2022-8-t-hasegawa?s=wChapters0:00 Intro2:25 T. Hasegawa overview6:45 Why fragrance and flavors are so sticky9:35 T. Hasegawa's small cost to large value15:25 What is Michael seeing that the market is missing in T. Hasegawa17:30 Are continued lockdowns a risk to the business?19:00 What do you need to believe for T. Hasegawa to continue to grow?20:55 Why will T. Hasegawa realize value from their Chinese investments?22:40 Is T. Hasegawa the classic Japanese value trap?26:45 Are acquisitions a good capital allocation decision here?32:50 T. Hasegawa closing thoughts34:30 What countries does Michael think are most attractive currently?

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms.My piece on Twitter: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/twitter-the-circus-will-have-a-happy?s=wThis podcast was taped afternoon of May 23; things are moving quickly so just time stamping that!Chapters0:00 Intro2:15 Twitter overview6:45 Why bot followers do not equal mDAUs8:00 Why is Twitter mispriced right now?12:40 Specific performance versus the $1 billion break fee18:30 Defining a material adverse event (MAE)26:25 The LVMH / TIF parallels 30:00 Why Elon should avoid going to court in Delaware35:45 Could Elon actually get out of this deal on a bot miscount?38:25 Does Elon waiving DD hurt him in a potential court case?42:35 How risky will discovery be for Twitter?46:55 Elon's financing risk / what price does the TSLA margin call happen?50:15 Can Elon walk if Tesla stock blows up?53:40 Will TWTR's board fold?1:01:00 What if Elon losses and still refuses to perform?1:03:45 Potential for an activist like Carl Icahn to get involved1:06:00 Why a mediation and slight price cut might be the most likely outcome1:09:50 What's the downside if Twitter loses?1:13:00 Event path odds

Ales Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, returns to the podcast to discuss all things media, including his investment in Disney and Netflix.Alex's first podcast appearance on Spotify: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1388122956837097482?s=20Alex's / TSOH substack: https://thescienceofhitting.comChapters0:00 Intro2:55 What's going on in media?6:15 What is the market missing with its media bearishness?8:45 Is media too competitive to invest in?14:35 Why is Netflix having a problem with breakout hits?18:30 Can you trust these companies when they say "trust us"?20:30 Is it true that Alex is a Marvel hater?22:30 NFLX's move into ad supported30:05 NFLX's (and the industry's) rising churn35:00 Why is DIS bundling when everyone else is consolidating into one product?38:05 Why hasn't Seinfeld broken out on NFLX?42:30 ESPN's streaming future49:00 Can you really make a profit streaming sports?54:15 Is Marvel fatigue real?58:50 Disney parks1:01:50 Opportunity cost of investing in DIS vs NFLX vs CMCSA (or something else)1:06:35 Berkshire buying Paramount

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, discusses his bull case for Endor AG, including why competitors can't recreate their product and how they benefit from the current boom in motor sports like F1 and NASCAR.My notes on Endor: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1526577674801520642?s=20&t=wqYSVMYKfG3kx8M9qhkB9wLuis's MOI pitch: https://twitter.com/LuisVSanchez777/status/1524707206574321666Chapters0:00 Intro2:20 Endor Overview14:40 Where is Luis most divergent from the market on Endor?24:15 How frequently do people upgrade?27:30 Why isn't Endor the typical COVID beneficiary about to fall off a cliff?36:00 How the current motor sport boom helps Endor42:00 Endor's valuation52:00 Endor's long term margin potential56:00 Endor's move into lower end products1:02:40 Luis's closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for a new monthly segment talking about the current state of the marketsMy note on event driven situations; https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/weekend-thoughts-the-rich-set-of?s=wMy note on energy companies: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/when-are-the-activists-and-pe-funds?s=wChapters0:00 Intro1:55 Chris's state of the markets11:05 KSS16:40 The regulatory environment and its impact on deals22:15 ATVI / MSFT28:50 TWTR and Elon Musk39:00 Commodity / energy stocks disconnect from strip pricing

Bill Chen makes his second podcast appearance to discuss Clipper Realty (CLPR). Clipper owns a bunch of NYC apartment buildings, and Bill thinks the current boom in apartment rentals will drive strong returns for the company going forward.Bill's first podcast appearance: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/bill-chen-breaks-down-frphs-sotp?utm_source=url0:00 Intro2:05 CLPR overview4:35 Where is Bill most differentiated on CLPR?8:20 How does the post-COVID NYC apartment boom help CLPR?14:15 CLPR's leverage and balance sheet16:45 Why CLPR over SLG or another similar REIT?20:30 Are the long term trends against NYC?28:00 Rent control in NYC34:50 Why do people have cable companies and their landlords?39:30 CLPR and inflation41:10 "Regulatory inflation" and NYC's moat43:30 CLPR's controlling family47:15 Discussing cap rate environment for NYC apartment49:40 CLPR's development projects and potential value creation53:40 The safety of CLPR1:00:00 Bill makes me feel bad about my shoebox apartment

In this special bonus episode, Randy Baron provides updates on his prior podcast appearances on RNLX and AMRS.Randy's appearance on GDS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1517512427071545346?s=20&t=UyPsEybQEnbnE9riOPd5yQRandy's appearance on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20Randy's appearance on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro0:45 RNLX update4:05 AMRS update9:45 AMRS's November convert raise: good or bad?15:15 Valuing AMRS's consumer brands20:20 Should AMRS just be focusing on consumer brands?25:15 AMRS capital needs going forward28:40 AMRS's management comp and shareholder alignment