Yet Another Value Podcast

Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st... Chapters0:00 Intro1:55 GreenFirst overview and background6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions22:50 Betting on great management teams28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?

Sean Iddings, an entrepreneur and microcap investor, discusses his high conviction position in eXp World Holdings (EXPI). EXPI is a hyper growth company that is attacking the real estate brokerage business with an interesting model. Sean breaks down the business, the upside he sees in the company, and addresses some of the red flags surrounding the stock.Sean’s EXPI write up: https://www.thewoodshedd.com/posts/2021-07-09-highconviction-copy/#how-to-value-expi Sean's twitter: https://twitter.com/iddings_seanMy notes on EXPI, including some interesting proxy details: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1423081507132936194?s=20 Chapters0:00 Intro1:25 What is EXPI?8:55 How EXPI harnesses the power of incentives10:05 Comparing EXPI to a multi-level marketing company (EXPI)18:00 Why aren't we seeing operating leverage?22:30 EXPI's expansion opportunities26:30 Discussing EXPI's copycats29:20 Is how the employees relate to the stock price concerning?35:45 Veirbela and Success magazine; critical assets or overrated?45:50 Sean's closing thoughts

Chris Krug, President of Chatham Harbor Capital, breaks down his thesis on PFMT, including why he thinks the stock could be a multi-multi-bagger.Chris's twitter: https://twitter.com/chcap2016My thread on PFMT notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...Chapters0:00 Intro1:05 PFMT Valuation Outline4:40 PFMT business overview15:15 How PFMT "lands and expands" verticals18:55 How PFMT integrates and ramps up new contracts27:55 Why can't a start up come and displace PFMT?32:05 What PFMT's financials look like once all their new clients onboard35:40 Quantifying PFMT's margin outlook37:25 Why can't HMS respond to PFMT?40:20 Why is Parthenon selling so aggressively?44:20 PFMT's capital allocation47:25 Would healthcare reform hurt or help PFMT?49:15 What could kill this investment?53:10 Closing thoughtsSHOW LESS

Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Burford (BUR). Burford is a litigation finance firm, and Artem makes a compelling case that they are both undervalued on an asset basis and have a moat giving their scale.Caro-Kann's website: http://caro-kann-capital.com/My thread on Burford prep: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1415795903751983109?s=20Chapters0:00 Intro1:35 Burford Overview6:00 Does Burford bring something other than money to the table?13:45 Is Burford's scale a competitive advantage?19:30 Why can't a major PE or IB launch a Burford competitor?23:10 Are the returns to litigation financing sustainable?37:10 How do you value Burford?42:20 Burford's first component of value: Balance sheet investments49:05 Buford's second value component: Asset management54:50 Burford's third value component: YPF case58:30 How Burford has valued YPF over the years1:10:25 Why should YPF settle in dollars instead of pesos?1:14:20 Discussing the bear case around the management team1:23:45 Closing thoughts

Adam Lindsay, founder and managing partner of Powell Anderson Capital Partners, discusses his bull thesis for Tripadvior (TRIP) and Liberty Tripadvisor (LTRPA). The bull thesis is nuanced, but much of it centers on TRIP's nascent Tripadvisor Plus business, which Adam thinks TRIP is uniquely suited to successfully launch and could drastically change their financials.Adam's email: adam@pacp.comChapters0:00 Intro1:30 TRIP Overview6:30 Why is Tripadvisor Plus not Instant Booking 2.0?13:00 How Plus could be a win/win/win22:30 Why can't OTA competitors copy Plus if it works?25:25 TRIP's crown jewel: experiences33:00 Evaluating TRIP's management38:00 Strained analogy comparing Twitter to TRIP40:30 TRIP valuation43:45 TRIP's cost structure going forward50:05 Comparing Liberty Tripadvisor to Tripadvisor55:00 Do TRIP and LTRPA get a "Maffei discount"?

Kyle Cerminara, President of FGNA, discusses his thesis for deSPACing with OppFi. Key topics include comparing OppFi to its closest competitors, how FNGA and OppFi arrived at their valuation, and addressing different regulatory risks for OppFi.Kyle's twitter: https://twitter.com/kcerminaraOppFi / FGNA's SEC filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1818502&owner=excludeChapters0:00 Intro1:30 OppFi overview9:40 Comping OppFi to Upstart16:35 Why are Katapult and Affirm part of OppFi's comp set?19:00 OppFi's valuation22:10 Why did OppFi agree to a deSpac at this valuation?27:45 How going public gives OppFi a bigger microphone29:35 Discussing negative headlines around FGF35:25 Why did FGNA send out so many LOIs?40:00 How did FGNA and OppFi handle the wait between the LOI in December and the definitive deal in February45:20 Will banning "rent-a-bank" impact OppFi?49:00 Discussing OppFi's ~30% charge off rate50:50 Interest rate caps and pending litigation55:20 Why didn't FGNA get a PIPE for the OppFi deal?58:10 Discussing OppFi's management and Joe Moglia1:06:45 Kyle's closing thoughts1:09:15 Bonus question: how will reopening impact OppFi?

Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, makes a repeat appearance to discuss his investment in CATO. CATO is a small retailer with a rock solid balance sheet; Mike thinks their low multiple combined with a focus on returning cash flow to shareholders and some hidden tax and real estate assets creates an attractive investment opportunity.Mike's first appearance on AXR: https://youtu.be/mSEgw2529Q4Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 Cato Overview5:45 Cato's target demographics8:45 Cato's online strategy (or lack thereof)13:15 What's driven Cato's store base recently15:30 Discussing CATO's management22:05 Valuing CATO's land27:35 Quantifying CATO's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)30:15 What's the endgame for CATO?37:25 Mike's closing thoughts on CATO

Brian Mosoff, CEO of Ether Capital Corp, does a deep dive into the investment case for Ethereum. Key topics include how Ethereum is different than Bitcoin, how proof of stake and EIP-1559 will improve the Ethereum ecosystem, and why Ethereum today looks like investing in computer operating systems in the early 80s.Disclosure: nothing in here is investing advice. Listeners/viewers should remember crypto is extremely risky and do their own work!Brian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/brianmosoffEther Capital's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ethcapChapters0:00 Intro1:35 Brian's background2:40 How is Ethereum different than Bitcoin?10:55 Ether as the operating system / highway for Web 3.016:20 Who are the "operating system" competitors for Ether23:05 How ether's transaction fee lead creates a big network effect27:50 How do you value Ethereum?30:50 Comparing crypto today to the dotcom bubble37:00 Can you value Ether of their fee run rate?47:00 Discussing staking and proof of stake58:50 What is EIP-1559?1:11:45 What is the risk to staking?1:13:50 Brian's closing thoughtsSHOW LESS

Randy Baron, Portfolio Manager at Pinnacle Associates, gives an overview of the Synthetic Biology space. Randy thinks "the 21st century is going to be a century of biology," and he discusses all the ways synthetic biology can change the world and why he thinks Amyris (AMRS) could be the biggest winner given their head start in the space.Randy's Barron's write up on Synthetic Biology: https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-investors-guide-to-the-promise-of-synthetic-biology-51623275429My thread with AMRS management quotes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407372814466826240 Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 Synthetic Biology Overview9:00 Amyris's founding treating malaria12:30 Squalene oil overview19:00 What's the barrier to entry for synthetic biology?23:45 Why is scaling so hard in synthetic biology?25:05 Comping AMRS to ZY (Zymergen)31:45 Discussing the value of AMRS's scaled molecules and pipeline35:00 AMRS's consumer brands37:20 Is having consumer brands and a research arm too good to be true?39:20 How AMRS could improve vaccines44:55 AMRS's zero calorie product, Purecane49:50 Quantifying the value of AMRS's different parts (SOTP)1:01:00 Discussing management and John Doerr's involvement1:06:00 How do you evaluate AMRS's CEO?1:11:45 Final thoughts

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Third Point Investors (TPOU; trades in London). TPOU is a closed-end investment company that invests into Third Point, Dan Loeb's hedge fund. TPOU consistently trades at a discount to NAV, and James thinks the combination of Third Point's investing prowess and TPOU's innovative buyback/tender mechanism creates a unique opportunity to generate attractive returns.James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaorAsset Value's May 26, 2021 activist letter to TPOU: https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2021/05/AVI-Open-Letter-to-TPIL-Vote-Co_2.pdfChapters0:00 Intro1:30 TPOU Overview3:55 Why invest in TPOU instead of Third Point directly?7:00 Third Point's return profile, past and forward looking14:20 TPOU's discount and unique tender mechanism17:30 Laying out a base case IRR to a potential March 31, 2024 tender27:30 Pushback #1: Doesn't this deserve a discount given the fee structure?34:25 Pushbuck #2: The corporate governance issues raised by Asset Value's letter43:30 TPOU tax consequences for U.S. investors45:05 Final thoughts on TPOU50:00 Quick hit on Third Point / Vivendi / PSTH / UMG