The Truth of the Matter

Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS and a leading expert in missile defense, discusses the critical role of missiles in global conflicts. He highlights escalating tensions in Ukraine and Russia's nuclear threats, particularly focusing on the RS-26 missile. The effectiveness of U.S. missile support, like the Precision Strike Missile (PRISM), is examined alongside the strategic dilemmas posed by North Korea and Iran. Karako underscores the need for military readiness and a coherent strategy to navigate these complex geopolitical dynamics.

Joseph Majkut, director of the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, dives into the critical intersection of AI and energy policy. He reveals the staggering energy demands of AI, forecasting a need for 50 gigawatts by the decade's end. The discussion includes strategies for sustainable energy solutions and balancing data center growth with policy. Joseph also outlines a five-pillar blueprint for AI infrastructure, emphasizing the urgency of enhancing electricity systems to maintain U.S. leadership in tech and meet climate goals.

Gregory C. Allen, Head of the Wadwani AI Center at CSIS, shares his expertise on AI policy and regulation. He discusses the achievements of the first Trump administration in AI and speculates on future policies concerning national security and safety. The conversation highlights the political dynamics between the Trump and Biden administrations, including expected regulatory challenges and open-source AI's future. Allen also touches on Taiwan's role in AI chip manufacturing and the potential implications for U.S.-China relations.

Anja Manuel, the executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group and an expert in AI and national security, tackles pressing issues in the intersection of technology and defense. She discusses the bipartisan strategies necessary to mitigate AI-related threats and emphasizes the significance of rigorous safety testing for large language models. Highlighting the US-China tech rivalry, Anja advocates for innovation to maintain a competitive edge. She also addresses AI's impact on election integrity, stressing the need for accuracy in combating misinformation to uphold democratic trust.

Victor Cha, an expert on North Korea, joins Maria Snegubaya, a specialist in Eurasia, Mark Kantsian, a retired Marine Corps Colonel, and Dennis Wilder, a U.S.-China relations scholar. They dive into North Korea's decision to send troops to Russia, exploring strategic incentives for both nations. The conversation reveals how this alliance could shape the battlefield in Ukraine and discusses China’s calculated stance on this evolving geopolitical landscape. They also address the implications of Russia's oil economy navigating sanctions and the potential risks of military collaboration.

Aram Nirguizian, a senior associate at CSIS and an expert on the Levant, dives into the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. He discusses recent shifts in Hezbollah's leadership and military strategies, shedding light on the fragile power dynamics within Lebanese politics. The impact on civilians navigating daily life amid adversity is also explored, highlighting their resilience. Additionally, he examines Hezbollah's diminishing arsenal and the implications for Iran's strategic position in the region.

Gregory C. Allen, an expert in AI policy, sheds light on the recently released National Security Memorandum on AI. He discusses its implications for U.S. leadership in AI technologies and ties it to historical technological crises. The conversation navigates the balance between innovation and regulation, emphasizing governance to mitigate risks in national security. Allen also highlights the AI Safety Institute's role in establishing responsible practices and the potential effects of the upcoming U.S. elections on AI policies.

Suzanne Spaulding, director of the CSIS Defending Democratic Institutions Project, brings her expertise in election security and disinformation to the discussion. She highlights the importance of protecting early voting and maintaining public trust amid foreign interference. The conversation delves into the intimidation faced by election workers and judges, stressing the need for trust in the legal system. As the 2024 elections approach, Suzanne emphasizes resilience in voting infrastructure and the vital role of officials in reassuring the public about election integrity.

Charles Edel, a CSIS Senior Adviser and former U.S. policy planner, and Kathryn Paik, Senior Fellow with the CSIS Australia Chair, dive into China's increasing influence in the Pacific. They discuss the urgency of U.S. engagement, revealing how Nauru's shift to recognize China highlights a diplomatic gap. The duo calls for better resources and cultural shifts in American foreign policy. They emphasize the need to tackle humanitarian issues and climate change while revitalizing America's presence through innovative initiatives, echoing JFK's vision for diplomacy.

Seth Jones, President of the CSIS Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair in Strategy, joins the podcast to discuss the data on increasing violence between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran presented in a new CSIS publication.Latest CSIS analysis on escalating war between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran