The Truth of the Matter

Joining the discussion is Seth G. Jones, an expert in defense and security at CSIS, who provides insights into the troubling state of the war in Ukraine. He reveals that Russia's military is faltering, with advances as slow as 50 meters per day and substantial casualties nearing a million by summer 2025. The conversation also highlights the economic turmoil Russia faces, including a struggling defense industry and growing inflation. Jones emphasizes the impact of these failures on Russia's domestic support and overall military strategy.

Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, dives into the evolution of missile defense and the challenges posed by modern threats. He highlights how funding for missile defense has surged from $12.8 billion to $25.5 billion in recent years. The discussion emphasizes the importance of systems like Israel's Iron Dome and the U.S. Golden Dome in countering missile threats from nations like China and Russia. Furthermore, Karako elaborates on advancements in technology and strategic alliances needed to adapt to the changing landscape of warfare.

“The Gulf is an absolutely critical player in critical minerals, because they’re all working on their goal of diversifying away from a reliance on oil…Each of these countries has adopted critical minerals as a central priority for their own economic development agenda, and that mirrors President Trump’s prioritization of minerals.” Minerals collaboration is already growing between the United States and Middle Eastern nations, including co-owned mining companies and high-level cooperation agreements. As countries like Saudi Arabia make development investments in emerging markets, these partnerships could become more important than ever. Gracelin Baskaran, director of the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program, joins the podcast to discuss potential minerals deals with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar during President Trump’s trip to the Middle East.

“The economic costs were beginning to become much more obvious—not just in terms of the market volatility, but potential shortages, inflation, the rare earths restrictions that the Chinese imposed. Those were going to bite soon.” On May 12, the White House announced a 90-day pause in the trade war between the United States and China and a significant reduction in tariffs following talks in Geneva. However, the impacts of the tariffs are already being felt by American consumers. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and director of the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, and Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, join the podcast to discuss the suspension in trade measures and what might come next.

“Modern war is almost a new missile age.” Missiles have played a crucial role in the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia beginning to send mass missile salvos at command and control nodes, political centers, and even civilian targets. The CSIS Futures Lab has launched an innovative new project, the Russian Firepower Strike Tracker, that uses AI and data analysis to determine the success of these attacks and ways for Ukraine to fight back.CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen, director of the CSIS Futures Lab and senior fellow in the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the CSIS Russian Firepower Strike Tracker and how to quantify wartime tactics. Learn more about the tracker here: https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine

CSIS’s Charles Edel joins the podcast to discuss the Australian elections and what it means for the Trump administration and the United States.  

Emily Harding, VP of Defense and Security at CSIS, shares insights from her recent Ukraine visit. The discussion highlights the dramatic shift in warfare, blending traditional tactics with cutting-edge drone technology. Harding delves into the psychological effects of drone operations and the urgent need for international military support. The conversation also explores the complexities of Ukraine’s mineral wealth and American businesses' roles in fostering resilience and stability amid the conflict.

Phil Luck, Director of the economics program at CSIS and a former deputy economist at the State Department, discusses the U.S. national debt and its implications. He highlights the roles of government borrowing, fiscal policies, and the importance of a national dialogue on entitlement reform. Luck also explains how the dollar's global dominance affects borrowing costs and geopolitical power. The conversation touches on complex monetary policies post-COVID-19 and explores potential solutions, including the impact of cryptocurrencies on the debt crisis.

Ryan Berg, Director of the Americas Program at CSIS, shares his expertise on U.S. strategic interests in the Panama Canal amid rising Chinese influence. He delves into the historical context of the canal's construction and its economic significance for Panama. Ryan highlights national security concerns regarding foreign control and discusses the military and economic implications if the U.S. were to reclaim the canal. He also examines the delays in international deals affecting port security and the broader geopolitical dynamics of maritime power.

Josh Geltzer, former deputy White House counsel under President Biden and a legal advisor at the National Security Council, dives deep into the fierce competition between the U.S. and China in the AI race. He discusses the strategic impact of U.S. policy on tech innovation and the significance of safeguarding AI technology from adversaries. Geltzer compares the AI approaches of the Biden and Trump administrations, highlighting the need for bipartisan cooperation in navigating national security concerns and managing high-stakes technological advancements.