The Truth of the Matter How Might Iran Conflict End?
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Jun 20, 2025 Norm Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East, sheds light on the potential resolutions to the Iran-Israel conflict. He discusses the implications of Israel's military actions on Iran's leadership and civil unrest. The conversation delves into the complex relationship between Iran and Israel, examining their military dynamics and negotiation paths. Roule also addresses the Gulf states' concerns for stability and the collaborative strategies between the U.S. and Israel to address Iran's nuclear aspirations.
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Possible Endings of Iran Conflict
- Conflict with Iran might end by Iran giving up nuclear enrichment to survive, regime overthrow, or disabling Iran's missile program.
- These outcomes could occur separately or together, shaped unpredictably by leadership decisions and events.
Iran's Transforming Military Leadership
- Killing senior Iranian officials has wiped out a generation in their military leadership but successors have different views.
- Iran's regime is transforming yet intact, and future changes depend on the Iranian people's actions.
Unpredictable Iranian Uprising
- Iranian people have periodically risen up, but many support or tolerate the regime out of fear or other reasons.
- An uprising moment is unpredictable but would seem inevitable in hindsight once it happens.