The Truth of the Matter

Eliot A. Cohen, former dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS and advisor to Condoleezza Rice, delves into Israel's strategic objectives against Iran amidst the rising nuclear threat. He discusses Israel's sophisticated military tactics, including covert operations and intense air strikes aimed at key Iranian facilities. Cohen also highlights the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and the complex divide between the Iranian government and its citizens. Finally, he explores how recent military operations are reshaping the future of warfare.

In this insightful discussion, Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS and a defense expert, analyzes the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. He highlights the historic missile engagements and Israel's tactical maneuvers. Karako delves into Iran's weakened defense capabilities and the looming nuclear threat. He also explores the implications for U.S. involvement and the strategic challenges facing both nations in this complex geopolitical landscape. His expertise sheds light on who may be winning or losing in this high-stakes confrontation.

This discussion features Seth Jones, an expert in defense and security, Emily Harding, a vice president at CSIS specializing in military matters, and Ben Jensen, who heads the futures lab at CSIS. They delve into Israel's recent strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, examining the motivations and potential long-term impacts on regional security. The guests explore the nuances of military retaliation, international support dynamics, and Iran's precarious geopolitical position, revealing how these events could reshape global trade and stability.

Tom Karako, the Director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, dives into the critical topic of spectrum management. He discusses the fierce competition between commercial telecommunications and national defense, emphasizing the scarcity of spectrum as a national resource. The conversation highlights the challenges of legislative compromises amid the needs of military radar and faster communication technologies. Karako also addresses the S-band's essential role in national security, underscoring its significance in global competition.

Dr. Tom Christensen, a Columbia University professor and former White House official, delves into the complexities of U.S.-China strategic competition. He questions the endpoint of this rivalry and emphasizes the need for nuanced understanding rather than a zero-sum game perspective. The discussion covers the crucial role of U.S. alliances in East Asia, economic impacts of tariffs, and the challenges China faces with its faltering real estate market. Christensen also explores how supply chains and economic interdependencies shape global trade dynamics.

Joining the discussion is Seth G. Jones, an expert in defense and security at CSIS, who provides insights into the troubling state of the war in Ukraine. He reveals that Russia's military is faltering, with advances as slow as 50 meters per day and substantial casualties nearing a million by summer 2025. The conversation also highlights the economic turmoil Russia faces, including a struggling defense industry and growing inflation. Jones emphasizes the impact of these failures on Russia's domestic support and overall military strategy.

Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, dives into the evolution of missile defense and the challenges posed by modern threats. He highlights how funding for missile defense has surged from $12.8 billion to $25.5 billion in recent years. The discussion emphasizes the importance of systems like Israel's Iron Dome and the U.S. Golden Dome in countering missile threats from nations like China and Russia. Furthermore, Karako elaborates on advancements in technology and strategic alliances needed to adapt to the changing landscape of warfare.

“The Gulf is an absolutely critical player in critical minerals, because they’re all working on their goal of diversifying away from a reliance on oil…Each of these countries has adopted critical minerals as a central priority for their own economic development agenda, and that mirrors President Trump’s prioritization of minerals.” Minerals collaboration is already growing between the United States and Middle Eastern nations, including co-owned mining companies and high-level cooperation agreements. As countries like Saudi Arabia make development investments in emerging markets, these partnerships could become more important than ever. Gracelin Baskaran, director of the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program, joins the podcast to discuss potential minerals deals with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar during President Trump’s trip to the Middle East.

“The economic costs were beginning to become much more obvious—not just in terms of the market volatility, but potential shortages, inflation, the rare earths restrictions that the Chinese imposed. Those were going to bite soon.” On May 12, the White House announced a 90-day pause in the trade war between the United States and China and a significant reduction in tariffs following talks in Geneva. However, the impacts of the tariffs are already being felt by American consumers. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and director of the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, and Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, join the podcast to discuss the suspension in trade measures and what might come next.

“Modern war is almost a new missile age.” Missiles have played a crucial role in the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia beginning to send mass missile salvos at command and control nodes, political centers, and even civilian targets. The CSIS Futures Lab has launched an innovative new project, the Russian Firepower Strike Tracker, that uses AI and data analysis to determine the success of these attacks and ways for Ukraine to fight back.CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen, director of the CSIS Futures Lab and senior fellow in the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the CSIS Russian Firepower Strike Tracker and how to quantify wartime tactics. Learn more about the tracker here: https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine