"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

Explore why you should ignore the 2024 presidential election news cycle, the challenges of prediction markets, the potential of prediction markets as a trillion dollar opportunity, and industry talent cycles

In this podcast, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss technological change, centralization versus decentralization, mental models for financial bubbles, and human nature. They explore productivity growth, globalization, demographics, geography, the tech lash, negative interest rates, 'Peak California', risk-taking, and intellectual portfolios.

Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the failed acquisition of Figma by Adobe, antitrust in tech, higher education as a cartel, the history of prestigious universities, and the future of lawyers and doctors. They also explore the challenges in K-12 education, ideological monopolies in universities, and strategies for promoting pluralism.

The podcast discusses OpenAI updates, macro predictions, the importance of software for Microsoft, the future of crypto and AI, barriers to entry in the AI field and crypto market, how McDonald's is a software business, analyzing the effects of minimum wage, and the current state of universities and doxing incidents in the EAC community.

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the lessons from Charlie Munger's life, how he differed from Warren Buffett, and where to find the next Munger. They also explore passive investments, real estate in California, the potential path of Buffett and Munger in today's market, historical investors and the power of data, trading stocks and currencies, and climbing the right ladders and AI-generated content.

Thomas Li, CEO of Daloopa, joins Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg to discuss hedge funds, crowding, risk management, yield curves, and the competition between everyday investors and hedge funds. They also explore the contrasts between hedge funds and venture capitalists, hedge fund strategies and challenges, and the concept of alpha in investment strategies.

Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the interplay of technology, demographics, and investment decisions, the impact of dating apps on society, and the comparison between Xi Jinping and Trump's policies. They also explore the relationship between globalization and pricing, the potential implications of longer lifespans, and the impact of AI on demographics and fertility rates.

Sam Altman discusses his ousting at OpenAI and new home at Microsoft, the competitive landscape for AI players, OpenAI's potential pivot, and Effective Altruism's role in the drama. The podcast also explores governance, uncertainty at OpenAI, corporate drama, the bull case for Microsoft, the decline of Effective Altruism, and moral philosophy in ongoing corporate drama.

The podcast discusses OpenAI's new developments, opportunities in AI investment, potential paradigm shifts in social media, and the best monetization strategies. They also explore reputation data sets, reforming institutions, and building new countries based on shared norms. The speakers share investing strategies and emphasize the importance of constant evaluation.

Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss his writing for The Diff, his biggest influences, and the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried. They delve into fake jobs in the economy, Byrne's desired historical figure role, Michael Lewis' book 'Going Infinite,' and blogging about prominent people's thoughts.