"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg
E9: What Byrne Hobart Thinks About Nearly Everything
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Technological change leads to major inflection points in markets and businesses.
- Productivity growth is influenced by new discoveries and leveraging historically contingent circumstances.
- Globalization complements productivity growth but is affected by factors like technology and geopolitical considerations.
- Progress Studies focuses on increasing output and productivity.
- Different perspectives challenge the ideas of Teal, Pinker, Taleb, and Cowan in relation to inflation, violence, optionality, and intellectual portfolio.
Deep dives
Importance of Understanding Technological Change
The podcast episode explores the major inflection points caused by technological change and how markets and businesses will adapt as a result.
Analyzing Present Era from Historical Perspective
The speaker examines the present era with the aim of looking at it from a historical perspective, understanding new inflection points, and identifying recurring patterns in various mediums, such as social media and mass media.
Productivity Growth and the Role of Discoveries
Productivity growth is influenced by both new discoveries with non-obvious potential and the deployment of existing successful ideas into adjacent industries. Maximizing growth involves identifying inventions that can have knock-on effects in related industries and leveraging historically contingent circumstances.
Globalization and Productivity Growth
Globalization complements productivity growth by providing larger markets and economies of scale, while also substituting as a choice between investing in uncertain innovations or investing in the growth of other countries. Factors such as technology, physical inputs, and geopolitical considerations affect the future of globalization.
Progress Studies is politically agnostic and anti-partisan
Progress Studies aims to focus on how to increase output and productivity rather than getting caught up in political debates or winners and losers.
Teal's argument on negative real rates and underestimation of inflation
Teal argues that real rates are very negative due to underestimation of inflation. However, it is argued that inflation is experienced differently depending on factors such as age, homeownership, and spending habits, which brings into question Teal's argument.
Pinker's view on violence and human nature
While Pinker argues that violence is decreasing, it is pointed out that the distribution of extreme violence suggests that the trailing mean can be misleading and that potential future events can significantly deviate from historical trends.
Taleb's view on optionality and taking risk
Taleb's emphasis on optionality and taking open-ended risk is challenged, suggesting that many individuals focus more on accumulating optionality rather than taking actual risk. This can be observed in lifestyle decisions like education and dating.
Cowan's wide diversification and implicit claims
Cowan's intellectual portfolio is characterized by wide diversification and implicit claims. While there may not be specific disagreements, it is noted that Cowan often emphasizes nuanced incremental claims and there may be unstated beliefs behind his thinking.
Today's episode is a throwback to when Erik interviewed Byrne Hobart for the first time on the Venture Stories by Village Global podcast. Byrne and Erik go deep on technological change, debate centralization versus decentralization, discuss mental models for financial bubbles, and examine human nature from the lens of different thinkers.
The Riff is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period.
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The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co
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Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity
- Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks
- Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822
- Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv
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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
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Thanks to our sponsor: SHOPIFY
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen
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LINKS:
Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co
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X / TWITTER:
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@byrnehobart (Byrne)
@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(01:11) Byrne's Approach to Understanding
(02:56) Productivity Growth
(06:38) Debate on Globalization
(16:30) Sponsor: Shopify
(18:12) Understanding the Impact of Geography, Demographics, and Energy
(27:25) State Capacity Libertarianism
(33:21) Predicting the Future of US-China Relationship
(34:37) Lessons from the East Asian Economic Miracles
(35:42) The Role of Corruption in Economic Growth
(36:32) Strategies for Subsidizing Exports
(38:05) The Impact of Anti-Globalization Movements
(38:30) The Trade Deficit Debate
(46:21) Charter Cities
(52:38) The Techlash
(01:07:38) The Future of Wall Street and Its Impact on Society
(01:17:53) The Power of the Dollar System
(01:18:55) Understanding Negative Interest Rates
(01:20:43) The Impact of Low Interest Rates on Infrastructure Development
(01:25:05) The Impact of Demographics on Long Term Bonds
(01:27:48) The Problem of Underfunded Pensions
(01:28:52) Understanding Financial Bubbles
(01:33:37) The Dynamics of Centralization and Decentralization
(01:50:43) The Future of Silicon Valley and California
(01:56:31) Disagreements with Notable Thinkers
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