UBS On-Air: Market Moves

As we close out another trading week, Brian recaps the FOMC policy meeting, along with notable economic data releases from over the past few days. We also spend time examining some economic implications of this week’s US election outcome. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US, David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income provide our initial reaction to the current vote count, equity and fixed income markets moves, and more.

On this episode of Viewpoints, and in the wake of the US election, Burkhard weighs what a second Trump term means for the markets, and how investors are balancing the prospects of lower corporate tax rates and less business regulations, with higher tariffs and wider budget deficits. Burkhard also discusses the concerns of the ‘bond vigilantes’ and what those concerns might mean for treasuries.

Every pundit claims they know the reason for the US election outcome. This pundit is no different. In exit polls, Republican voters’ biggest concern was the economy and 75% of US voters said inflation was a hardship this year. Three years of durable goods price deflation are not noticed by voters, who focus on price levels of high-frequency purchases (like food). The election may have been won and lost in the aisles of Walmart, over the price of a Snickers bar.

On this post-Election Day episode, Shane breaks down the known results (including for the race for the White House, along with the many Congressional races). Plus, reflects on Decision 2024 voting trends and turnout. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this discussion, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, dives into the political landscape following the Republican Senate call and the uncertainty of the House and presidency. He highlights how financial markets are responding to the possibility of a Trump victory, noting that campaign rhetoric may not fully translate into actual policies. The conversation also touches on voter concerns about inflation and examines key economic indicators in Europe, shedding light on the European Central Bank's stance amid these shifts.

There is another wave of noise from sentiment polls (today it is the turn of service sector sentiment). French September manufacturing and industrial production data are due (manufacturing sentiment has pointed to a dramatic collapse in production since January 2023. French manufacturing output has risen over the same period).

With Election Day just hours away, and a Fed policy meeting slated for later this week, Jason drops by to share CIO’s assessment heading into the election, along with what recent jobs and GDP data could mean for the course for monetary policy. We also check in on Q3 corporate earnings results, share CIO’s current market outlook, along with guidance when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report last Friday was weak, but distorted. It does not add much useful information on the US economy, although it serves as a reminder that real time economic data is not reliable and is frequently revised. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s strategy of data dependency depends on undependable data.

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around year-end asset class performance expectations, potential outcome implications of the US election for fixed income investors, positioning, and more. Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy