UBS On-Air: Market Moves

China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, although the detail hinted at some export strength. It seems rather early for the story of foreigners buying goods in anticipation of tariffs—buy now to avoid taxes later—to apply.

We recap President-elect Trump’s visit to Washington DC (including his White House meeting with President Biden), along with review the known staff picks and cabinet nominations of the incoming Trump administration. Plus, a look at incoming Congressional leadership, and a review of the Congressional agenda priorities between now and year end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the latest US inflation data, along with considers the potential impact of US-imposed tariffs (to nations such as China) to the US inflationary environment. We also calculate whether tariffs will ultimately pay for lower taxes in the US.

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be consistent with a December rate cut—in this situation, the Federal Reserve does not want rising real rates, and inaction would raise real rates over the course of this year.

We get US consumer price inflation data today. In one sense, the numbers are curiously unimportant. There are potentially competing forces at work on future US inflation. The fantasy owners’ equivalent rent measure should slow, but does not change anyone’s inflation reality. Oil prices may be lower, depending on US supply and Middle Eastern policies. Larger fiscal deficits, labor deportations, and consumer taxes via tariffs would all add to inflation pressures.

We spotlight the latest Modern Retirement Monthly publication which breaks down the associated costs of long-term care, along with solutions to consider. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The New York Federal Reserve survey of inflation expectations is of little economic relevance, but may be of future political interest. Inflation expectations are skewed towards prices of high frequency purchases (food and fuel). Trade tariffs, as a sales tax, increase prices paid by US consumers—but generally for lower frequency purchases. As such, the impact on living standards may be greater than the impact on perceived inflation.

In the wake of the US election outcome, Jason breaks down what a second Trump term means for the markets, the US economy, and monetary policy. Plus, thoughts on the recent market momentum, and whether it can last, along with a look at CIO’s investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and ElectionWatch Co-lead, provides an update on the vote count and outcome, while Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Strategist, Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Strategist, and Brad Ball, Financials Strategist, dive into three of the most election-sensitive sectors.

China’s fiscal stimulus plans underwhelmed financial markets. There is a sense that consumer weakness has not been addressed directly (the weekend’s consumer price inflation data suggested consumer weakness). There might be a reluctance to admit that current policies are not working, or a desire to keep some fiscal firepower in reserve to deal with the risk of trade taxes in 2025.