UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Mike Gourd, an Asset Allocation Strategist at UBS Chief Investment Office, shares invaluable insights for investors eyeing 2025. He discusses the expected shift towards lower interest rates and how this will influence cash and treasury yields. Gourd introduces the Transformational Innovation Opportunities (TRIO) framework, emphasizing strategic investments in AI and the semiconductor industry. He also highlights the optimistic outlook for technology stocks driven by increased AI spending, urging listeners to diversify their portfolios.

A former US Congressperson’s withdrawal from the attorney general nomination raises questions about political orthodoxy and market stability. The discussion delves into how these political shifts subtly impact financial markets. UK retail sales data and US consumer confidence surveys post-election are critically analyzed, providing insight into economic sentiments. The episode also touches on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies amidst ongoing inflation concerns, revealing the intricate dance between politics and finance.

Learn about key developments that will shape the next stage of the decade, including political change in the US, economic stimulus in China, geopolitical developments and lower interest rates. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korean export data for early November rebounded from October’s decline, led by sales of microchips and ships—neither of these directly suggest consumer spending is behind the improving trade data. Chip demand has been focused on investment spending lately, and shipping construction has too long a lead time to be a short-term indicator of global demand.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares expectations for the year ahead, across global regions. We also spend time reflecting on this year’s “roaring twenties” scenario - notably its’ impact to global growth and markets, along with its’ anticipated presence throughout this decade.

UK consumer and producer price inflation data for October leads today’s data calendar. The headline numbers will be distorted by the weirdness of UK energy pricing (despite large-scale renewable energy generation, gas prices determine what consumers pay). Bank of England Governor Bailey yesterday put some emphasis on service sector inflation, while advocating a gradual reduction of rates.

There is a quiet data calendar. Eurozone final consumer price inflation data for October is the textbook definition of an economic non-event. The regional numbers are all out, and final consumer price data almost never changes from the initial release. Markets are also comfortable in their expectations for ECB rate cuts in the coming months.

As we await President-elect Trump’s personnel selections to carry out US economic policy, Jason examines the mix of known intended supply-side fiscal policies of the incoming administration. We also touch on the implications of potential fiscal policy to the course of monetary policy, along with assess the integrity of the “Trump trade” following recent indications of cracks. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors in the wake of the US election outcome, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least seek to minimize the severity of US consumer tax hikes. Media reports suggest that the search is being broadened, and commitment to the tax increases is being sought. The challenge of the proposed tariffs is not just the rate, but also the breadth (and the possibility of universal blanket tariffs).