UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Paul Hsiao, an Asset Allocation Strategist for the Americas at UBS, discusses critical themes for business owners in late 2025. He explores the impact of a shifting macroeconomic landscape, including policy convergence, new tariffs, and inflation. The conversation highlights navigating economic resilience despite high interest rates, the evolving dealmaking environment with a focus on AI-driven acquisitions, and the implications for future investments. Paul's insights are invaluable for anyone looking to make informed decisions in a complex economic climate.

The podcast dives into the shortlist for the next US Federal Reserve governor, questioning the candidates' political independence. It highlights how trade taxes affect US importers and discusses the significance of European retail data in global trade. The focus then shifts to Europe, where domestic demand emerges as a key driver of economic growth amid declining German factory orders and Japan's wage increases. These trends offer insights into consumer spending and hint at possible central bank actions.

Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS, dives into the evolving landscape between developed and emerging markets. He challenges traditional categorizations based on GDP and industrialization, suggesting that the lines are increasingly blurred. Alejo highlights the need for investors to adapt their strategies, considering the potential in countries like China and India. He also emphasizes the importance of diversification to navigate capital market dynamics and volatility. Tune in for valuable insights that could reshape your investment approach.

Explore the latest in the US trade balance, focusing on how the June figures reveal the interplay between goods and services. The discussion highlights how trade taxes have distorted export patterns and the impact on bilateral relationships, especially with the EU. There's an intriguing look at how the anticipated tariffs are unlikely to position the US as an export powerhouse. Additionally, investment strategies are evolving as efficiency takes precedence in response to changing market dynamics.

Dominic Schnider, Head of CIO Global FX & Commodity at UBS, and Constantin Bolz, CIO FX Strategist, dive into the recent sharp decline of the US dollar. They discuss its impact on global investors' strategies and the implications for portfolio diversification. The duo highlights factors such as tariffs and fiscal deficits affecting currency values. They emphasize the rise of alternative currencies like the euro and the potential investments in European markets. It's a timely conversation urging investors to reconsider their currency exposures.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the recent selloff in US equities and what this means for investors. He analyzes the disappointing July jobs report and its implications for the labor market. The conversation dives into the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and its impact on market stability. Draho emphasizes the potential for ongoing volatility and encourages investors to focus on medium-term opportunities, particularly in the AI sector.

Last Friday’s US employment report revisions were in line with a fragile labor market narrative. The story is still “not hiring, not firing.” Falling manufacturing employment is consistent with policy uncertainty. The most troubling development on Friday was not the data, but US President Trump firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner.

Discover insights on the U.S. economy's intriguing slowdown, even with booming investments in AI. Unpack recent job reports and how political shifts impact Federal Reserve decisions. Explore potential market movements and uncover unique investment opportunities amid trade uncertainties. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest economic trends!

This week dives into the disappointing July Jobs Report, revealing only 73,000 job gains and its potential impact on monetary policy. Recent labor market trends indicate a softening environment, with jobless claims slightly declining. Surprisingly, GDP growth is highlighted, but caution is advised due to decreased spending and tariffs. The discussion wraps up by examining how the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates and key economic indicators will shape future investment strategies.

Rising taxation is casting a shadow over US consumers. The newly implemented minimum sales taxes are set to hit hard, affecting spending power and potentially altering the labor market. There's speculation on whether courts will intervene, which could reshape the tax landscape. If these taxes stick, the repercussions might ripple through inflation and global business sentiment. The future looks uncertain as consumers brace for the unseen costs of these financial changes.