UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: July Jobs Report, FOMC takeaways, & the week ahead
Aug 1, 2025
This week dives into the disappointing July Jobs Report, revealing only 73,000 job gains and its potential impact on monetary policy. Recent labor market trends indicate a softening environment, with jobless claims slightly declining. Surprisingly, GDP growth is highlighted, but caution is advised due to decreased spending and tariffs. The discussion wraps up by examining how the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates and key economic indicators will shape future investment strategies.
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July Jobs Report Weakness
- The July jobs report showed weak payroll growth at 73,000, well below expectations, with significant downward revisions.
- Labor market softness is emerging, with slowing hiring, declining quits, and expected slower payroll gains ahead.
Q2 GDP Growth Misleading
- Q2 GDP growth was a strong 3% but largely due to decreased imports boosting the headline.
- Underlying indicators show slowing business investment, residential declines, and weak consumer spending amid trade tariff impacts.
Fed Holds Steady, Eyes Data
- The Fed held rates steady despite White House easing pressure and noted labor market balance and stubborn inflation.
- September rate moves hinge on upcoming labor and inflation data, with rate cut odds shifting based on recent weak jobs numbers.