UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump confused investors by appearing to delay taxing US consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods. The White House then “clarified” that the tax delay was not decided. Such taxes would be very visible to US consumers, at a time when Trump’s approval ratings on the economy and inflation have fallen, making repeated retreats likely.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains how and why market activity (and performance) has started to shift from the US to the rest of the world this year, and how investors should consider positioning their portfolios accordingly.

Many investors want to know the possibility of changes to federal income tax policies, and what the changes might mean for their personal tax burden. However, it's not just the future of taxes and tax policy that matters, it's where your income level falls along the income brackets that ultimately matters. We identify where you can focus your attention so that you can better manage your lifetime tax burden and discuss strategies to help you improve your after-tax wealth potential. Featured are Justin Waring, Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US equity markets were a little disturbed by a sharp decline in a consumer confidence survey—but these surveys are distorted by partisan politics. Depending on the cable news network one watches, the US is either an unpleasant version of Panem from “The Hunger Games” or a Panglossian paradise where all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds. Clear economic signals are hardly likely to come from economic surveys in such a situation.

US President Trump repeated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of goods from Canada and Mexico, starting next week. Markets do not entirely believe Trump. Taxing everyday essentials like propane gas and avocado on toast would be very visible, very quickly to US consumers. Polls suggest only 32% of US voters approve of Trump’s management of inflation.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, dives into the macroeconomic debate of whether a Trump policy put is more likely than a policy error in 2025. He evaluates the recent selloff in U.S. equity markets and assesses indicators like retail sales. The conversation then shifts to Germany’s election outcomes, examining how a new coalition may affect fiscal spending and market stability. Finally, he offers insights on navigating current market uncertainties and the outlook for equity investments.

As with many other elections in the past 12 months, the Germans voted against their incumbent government. The CDU’s Merz is expected to become the next chancellor (coalition negotiations typically take months). After the results, Merz compared US election interference to that of Russia, and suggested that Europe would need to become independent of US security.

Against the backdrop of a potential shutdown of the US government next month, Shane updates us on a range of priorities being addressed by Congress. We also update on the status of remaining cabinet-level confirmation hearings, along with ongoing negotiations for a Russia-Ukraine war resolution. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join Amantia Muhedini, a Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist at UBS, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer of Sustainable Thematic Equities at AllianceBernstein, as they dive into the evolving landscape of sustainable investing. They unpack the complexities of EU Omnibus regulations and the changing U.S. policies under the Trump administration. The duo highlights the importance of transparency and data-driven decisions, while also exploring the implications of new executive orders on the electric vehicle market and fossil fuel reliance.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that former US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s debt issuance plan would continue, implying no increase in longer-dated Treasury bonds and lowering 10-year yields. This support is threatened by talk of a “DOGE dividend” to taxpayers. There is a considerable gulf between claimed government savings and economists’ view of reality. Refunding illusionary savings would be a deficit-financed stimulus check.