UBS On-Air: Market Moves Ahead of the curve with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
5 snips
Aug 25, 2025 This week dives into the impact of Powell's speech on interest rates and inflation. The conversation highlights how this influences market dynamics. There's a spotlight on NVIDIA's upcoming earnings and the demand in the AI sector. The discussion also forecasts promising trends for U.S. equities and bonds, revealing opportunities that lie beyond conventional expectations.
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Fed Frames Tariffs As One-Off Shock
- Powell framed tariff-driven inflation as a one-off price level shock and opened the door to a September rate cut.
- This pivot supports the UBS baseline of a 25 basis point cut in September unless very strong payroll data intervenes.
NVIDIA Earnings Are Market-Moving
- NVIDIA's earnings will be the key market event, with demand commentary being most important for market direction.
- Expect cautious China hedging and mixed seasonal price reaction given China policy and NVIDIA's revenue exposure.
Three Earnings Focuses For NVIDIA
- Key NVIDIA earnings focuses: demand commentary, China revenue hedging, and gross margin/supply constraints as it shifts to AI superchips.
- These points determine how deeply NVIDIA's results affect the AI capex narrative and S&P concentration risk.