UBS On-Air: Market Moves Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 44)
Aug 20, 2025
Burkhard Varnholt, UBS's Chief Investment Officer, discusses the interconnectedness of global markets and recent geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine. He emphasizes the implications of the Jackson Hole Summit, focusing on Jerome Powell's key messages about demographics and interest rates. Varnholt also previews an upcoming investor summit, highlighting the impact of aging populations on financial markets and the pressing need for guaranteed income solutions. His insights provide a compelling look at navigating economic uncertainty in a changing world.
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Peace Would Reverse War Market Distortions
- Peace could remove war-driven market dislocations like sanctions and commodity price distortions.
- Reconstruction would boost European infrastructure demand and improve regional investor sentiment.
Commodities And Gold Would Shift Differently
- Lifting sanctions would likely increase Russian commodity supply and lower global prices, aiding importers like India.
- Gold's rally is more structural due to central banks shifting dollars into gold, so high prices may persist.
Be Cautious About Expecting Big Fed Cuts
- Beware of wishing for aggressive Fed rate cuts as they could signal economic weakness or spur a volatile market reaction.
- Prepare for gradual cuts stretched over many months rather than a single large cut.