The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Georgi Engelbrecht, a senior analyst for the Philippines at Crisis Group, delves into the nation's pivotal role in global politics. He discusses the complex relationship between the Philippines and China, including the historical context of their disputes in the South China Sea. Engelbrecht also unpacks the political drama of the Duterte-Marcos rivalry and its implications for democracy. He highlights the unique challenges of economic growth intertwined with poverty, offering insights into the country's evolving political landscape.

Geopolitics takes center stage as discussions delve into President Trump's trade policies and their impact on global dynamics. The complex relationship between India and China reveals diplomatic challenges, while U.S. perceptions of European allies provoke laughter and critique. Internal Republican politics highlight the risks posed by safe districts ahead of the 2026 elections. Protests in Serbia spark wider civic movements against governance, reflecting deeper geopolitical tensions. Each topic unravels a layer of how political strategies shape international relations.

Jacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) – Profit recession(13:10) – Copper(16:32) – The direction of the USD(20:34) – Multipolar investing(28:11) – India and Shorting(37:47) – Parisian vibe check--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--

Tensions rise as discussions unfold about the escalations between the U.S. and Iran, questioning the likelihood of military conflict. Turkey's political shifts spark debates on Erdogan's leadership and corruption. Indonesia grapples with leadership dynamics amid concerns over potential military rule. The conversation then shifts to China’s economic strategies and the implications for global trade. Finally, the hosts engage in a playful geopolitical draft, linking sports moments with significant historical events, revealing the intersection of geopolitics and athletics.

Dive into a lively discussion on the dissolution of the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment and its impact on U.S. geopolitical analysis. The hosts tackle the concept of multipolarity, challenging America's aggressive strategies. They humorously explore Canada-U.S. trade relations through a milkshake metaphor, critiquing perceptions of superiority. Finally, they analyze shifts in Europe's geopolitical landscape and speculate on the future of American influence, all while inviting listeners to engage in a light-hearted debate.

The discussion kicks off with the chaotic landscape of Trump’s tariffs and their unsettling impact on markets. Jacob’s personal family insights lead to a relatable look at stock fluctuations. Europe is surprisingly stepping up, especially with Germany and Poland leading military and defense strategies. Meanwhile, Turkey’s complex moves and the Kurdish situation create further intrigue in geopolitical dynamics. The exploration of U.S.-China trade tensions provides a glimpse into the broader economic battles shaping our world.

In this engaging conversation, Wendong Zhang, a Cornell University Assistant Professor and economist specializing in tariffs, shares his insights on the multifaceted impacts of tariff policies. He discusses who is affected by tariffs and the potential economic ripple effects across various sectors. The dialogue also touches on the complexities of global trade wars, retaliation strategies, and the implications for countries like the U.S., China, Canada, and Mexico. Zhang provides an objective analysis, making it clear that understanding tariffs goes beyond a simple good or bad narrative.

The unexpected Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelensky sparks a deep discussion on U.S. foreign policy and a controversial rare earth mineral deal. Insights emerge on the miscommunication impacting U.S.-Ukraine relations. The hosts analyze the shifting dynamics between the U.S. and Russia, highlighting Zelensky's leadership amid geopolitical turmoil. Concerns over NATO's future and Europe's growing independence also take center stage, alongside critiques of past U.S. foreign policy approaches as the landscape shifts toward multipolarity.

The hosts explore the tumultuous landscape of global markets and highlight the surprising resilience of Germany's economy. They discuss the shifting dynamics in U.S.-China trade relations and how certain international equities might offer growth amid domestic discontent. With insights into Europe's evolving stance on China and the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they touch on the end of President Trump’s economic honeymoon. Optimism lingers for China and Germany, despite overall market unease.

The conversation dives into China's new export restrictions on critical minerals, igniting discussions on international trade and geopolitical tensions. With the U.S. still dependent on imports, the challenges of accessing essential materials are made clear. The duo explores how sustainable practices in mining clash with public perception and political priorities. Additionally, they ponder the legacy of wartime innovations that shaped modern metallurgy and question the future of metal refining amidst a rapidly changing market.