The Jacob Shapiro Podcast Go Where The Fiscal Is
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Apr 28, 2025 Chase Taylor, an analyst at Pine Cone Macro, joins for a riveting discussion on U.S. trade policy and its effects on global markets. He sheds light on how Trump's tariffs might lead to a recession and why China's fiscal discipline could be an unexpected asset. Taylor explores enticing investment opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, while examining the intricate dance of capital flows and political risk. Plus, there's a fun detour into NBA playoff chatter that blends sports with economics!
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Tariffs Near Trade Embargo Impact
- U.S. tariffs at 200%+ on Chinese imports act like an embargo, severely disrupting manufacturing and supply chains.
- Easing reciprocal tariffs and trade tensions could prevent a depression-level economic collapse.
Employment Key to Recession Status
- Job market data is the key indicator to determine if the U.S. has entered a recession.
- Despite technical recession signs, sustained job losses haven't started yet, delaying formal recession status.
Safe Assets in Trade War
- In case of a worsening U.S.-China trade war, hold a lot of cash and invest short-term in U.S. Treasury bonds.
- Short-term bonds benefit as rates cut and Fed intervention become likely in recession scenarios.