The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Rob and Jacob break down false narratives on U.S. macro and on German de-industrialization before taking a trip around the world and looking at key issues in the EU-Hungary conflict, and China’s COVID-19 and real estate problems. They close with some optimism about Japan and ways of thinking about demographics and globalization in a rapidly changing world. Timestamps:1:22 - 10:40 - False Narratives in Macro10:40 - 23:00 - German De-Industrialization23:00 - 36:26 - Hungary's Bad Bets36:26 - 43:00 - China's COVID-19 & Real Estate Problems43:00 - End - JapanMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Dan Basse and Jacob sit down in person to talk about the world, markets, and, of course, agriculture!Dan Basse is President of AgResource and a fantastic guest! https://agresource.com/about/Timestamps2:00 – 14:00 – Recapping presentations at PDPW14:00-26:00 – Peak U.S. Farmland/2023 Predictions/Russia-Ukraine24:00 – end: Why people underestimate Brazil + thoughts on MexicoMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob gather for their weekly chat and discuss the protests in China and what is being missed about them. They then discuss the quietly deteriorating trade relationship between the U.S. and EU before focusing in on developments in Latin America, especially the problems in Mercosur and how Brazil may or may not capitalize. Timestamps1:15-20:15 – China20:15-30:00 – U.S.-EU relations30:00 – end: Latin America + multipolarityMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future.Jacob welcomes Jacek back onto Cognitive Dissidents to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. They discuss several critical issues, including 1) Who fired the missile that landed in Poland and killed 2 people? 2) Will Germany stand up for Ukraine in the long-run? 3) Is the world headed towards a U.S.-China rivalry.Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Mike Edwards is Deputy CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.Jacob and Mike discuss China headlines briefly before diving into the main topic: whether the Chinese Communist Party can encourage alternatives to property as an investment vehicle in China. From there they touch on Japan briefly before concluding with some bullish thoughts on Europe.Timestamps:1:13-7:33 – China COVID Reopening7:33-15:26 – G-20 Thoughts15:26-32:13 – China’s Property Crisis32:30-38:50 – Japan38:50–end – EuropeMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob tackle the FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried debacle, before turning to China’s struggles (and whether Xi Jinping is up to them), as well as thoughts on U.S. Fed and ECB monetary policies…with historical allusions back to the interwar period of the 20th century.1:42-27:30 – Crypto/FTX/SBF27:30-45:53 – China45:53-end: The Fed v. the ECB; the U.S. as the UKMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob is joined by Daryl Ritchison, Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network at NDSU, to discuss how the weather will look in the world in the year ahead. They start with some broad thoughts about the pitfalls of predicting the weather, before checking in on the U.S, Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe, and China and what weather has in store in the year ahead.Timestamps:2:10–10:10 – How to think about weather10:10-21:30 – La Nina and Hurricane Season21:30-31:47– Europe31:47-36:41 – USA36:41-39:38 – Mexico + Canada39:38 - 43:40 – South America43:40 – 49:37 – China and Asia in general 49:37 – end – Thoughts on climate change Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Rob and Jacob briefly address the weaker-than-expected inflation print before attending to developments you might have missed amidst all the U.S. inflation and election news: more economic trouble in China, optimism in Europe and Brazil…and a potential canary in the coal mind at the end of the episode. Timestamps:1:30-6:37 – U.S. Inflation Reaction6:37-24:55 – China/Japan25:00-33:40 – Multipolar Trade933:40-44:10 – Europe44:10–End – Canary in the coal mineMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Marko Papic is back to talk about the markets, Russia's big fudge on oil (and war), and a little bit of everything else geopolitical! Stick around for some basketball talk after 1:04:10!TimeStamps:3:12 - 23:34 - Markets Update23:30 - 39:30 - Oil, Europe, UAE, Russia39:30 - 52:20 - Ukraine, Russia, The Future52:20 - 1:04:10 - Over-Under1:04:10 - End BasketballMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

After a 2-week hiatus due to COVID and travel, Rob and Jacob are back at it. They explore Russia’s brief exit from the Black Sea grain deal, discuss how China and the U.S. economies are going in opposite directions, explore short-term risks and long-term opportunity in Turkey, before closing with bullish thoughts on Brazil post-election.Timestamps:2:00-15:43 – Who wins if Russia is weak?16:00-43:46 – U.S. booming, China on its knees43:46-58:53 – Turkey: The Good, Bad, and the Ugly58:53–end – Why we love BrazilMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.