The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob and Rob get a little introspective this week, using developments in China and Vietnam to talk about how to think about the world and the struggle between having too much information and how to make sense of it all. Along the way they discuss uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing protests in Peru, and why people are getting the Bank of Japan so wrong.--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:Timestamps:1:00 – 3:48 – Bank of Japan3:48 – 24:29 – China reopening/narratives tangent24:29-38:52 – Vietnam/intelligence tangent38:52 – 48:00 – Eurasia48:00 – end – Peru--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is joined by Alf and Andreas of The Macro Trading Floor to discuss the increasingly intersecting worlds of macro and geopolitics in 2023. Alf and Andreas offer differing perspective about the future of Europe, before turning to questions around how to play China’s re-opening and what the effects of a recession in the U.S. will be on U.S. equity performance.--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Macro Trading Floor podcast: HereAlfonso Peccatiello’s website: HereAndreas Steno Larsen’s website: Here --Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:Timestamps:2:00-13:00 – Geopolitics and investing/gold?13:00-35:00 – Europe35:00-45:00 – China/copper45:00-end – U.S. v Intl equity performance in 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

We're usually pretty bullish on the EU, but this week some interesting data points were released that made us rethink our usual Euro decisions. Jacob and Rob take some time to break down the data behind their decision to short the Euro, then move southwest to Latin America where commodities seem to be ignoring the wild political strife and flying to the moon. Finally, heading over to the Middle East and Asia, R & J tackle Iran's strange outbursts and try to gauge whether India is actually able to do what it says.Timestamps:1:17-21:35 – Shorting the euro21:35-36:10 – Peru/Panama/Copper/Nationalization36:10-42:2242:22-end – Iran and India Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)Cognitive Investments

What led to the Capital Riots on January 8th situation?Is there a significant threat to Democracy inside of Brazil?Will there be significant geopolitical fallout for Brazil's neighbors?What will Brazil's domestic fallout look like?How will this affect global markets or long positions in the Brazilian market?Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)Cognitive Investments

2023 has started off with a fairly subdued international news cycle... but the world hasn't stopped turning. So, what's lurking beneath the surface? What are we missing (besides Kevin McCarthy's humiliation at the hands of his own party)?Tune in to hear the latest updates on everything going on outside of our little bubble - across Europe, Asia, Latin America and the food markets!Timestamps:0:00-7:26 – Europe7:26-18:53 – Japan18:53 – 23:06 – China23:06 – 36:15 – Copper36:15 – 50:45 – Soybeans50:45 – end – Latin American/MexicoMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)Cognitive Investments

What does the immediate future of China look like?Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military?John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries. John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics at MITTimestamps:1:40-10:50 – China 202310:50 - 27:10 – Is China a threat to the U.S.?27:10 – 35:02 – China Chips/AI35:02-49:22 – Chinese technology transfer policy49:22 – end – South Korea? Taiwan? Japan?Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine. Tune in for some interesting surprisesTimestamps:0:00-4:43 – Intro4:43 - 17:26 – The Bank of Japan’s surprise17:26-end – Looking back at 2022 and a head 2023Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Kamran rejoins the show without much optimism to offer – for Iran, for Pakistan, or for much of the Muslim world. Central Asia, however, might be the silver lining.Timestamps:1:22 - 32:20 – Iran32:20 - 39:10 – Turkey39:10 – 52:40 Islam/Pakistan52:40 – end – Any optimism?Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob discuss the latest developments in geopolitics and markets. They dissect the U.S. inflation print before discussing why the euro is at a critical moment, why no one should be certain about China going into 2023, and some peripheral risks that aren’t being focused on enough. They also discuss Jacob’s savant-level soccer predictions.Timestamps:2:00-12:05 – U.S. Macro12:05-20:10 – Pivotal moment for Europe20:10-40:29 – China is confusing40:14–48:20 – Canary in Southeast Asia48:20-end – Grains + ArgentinaMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Elohim Monard joins Jacob for an emergency podcast to discuss the “dumbest coup attempt in history.” They discuss what happened this week in Peru, why it happened, and what it means for the future. Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.