Tobias Harris, a leading expert on Japanese politics and author of "Iconoclast: Shinzo Abe and the New Japan," joins the discussion to unpack Japan’s recent political upheaval following its latest elections. He emphasizes the significance of underestimating Japan's evolving landscape. The conversation dives into the rise of Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister, the complexities of Japan's relationship with China and South Korea, and the lasting legacy of Shinzo Abe on the current political scene. Expect insights that challenge your perceptions of Japan!

Jacob and Rob dissect Donald Trump's unexpected electoral win and its ripple effects on the economy and markets. They examine the mixed sentiments in the US and Europe, noting investor reactions and the volatility of risk assets. The discussion highlights the steel industry's influential role amidst market shifts and scrutinizes public perceptions that impact decision-making. Additionally, they delve into the political upheaval in Germany, exploring how changing dynamics may alter European responses to American policies.

Marko Papich, a contributor to BCA Research known for his insights on global markets and geopolitics, joins the discussion on Trump's potential second term. They analyze how the election's outcome could reshape the U.S. economy and international relationships. Topics include Trump's domestic agenda, evolving U.S.-China relations, and the geopolitical ramifications of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The conversation also touches on political realignment and the impact of party affiliation in shaping American identity.

Will Freeman, a Fellow for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, dives deep into the troubling dynamics of organized crime in Latin America. He discusses the surge in illegal gold mining and cocaine production, and how these industries fuel global challenges. Freeman explores the concept of 'anarcho-states,' where crime and governance intertwine, risking democratic stability. He also analyzes the shifting political landscapes in Mexico, Peru, and El Salvador, providing insights on their future amidst rising authoritarianism and public unrest.

With the U.S. election just around the corner, predictions and scenarios take center stage. The discussion dives into economic implications of potential Trump or Harris wins, including their impact on markets and inflation. Cultural sentiment plays a pivotal role in voter behavior, while insights on illegal gold mining expose unsettling truths about global supply. Cautious investment strategies are emphasized amidst shifting dynamics in equities and alternative assets like Bitcoin. Historical perspectives provide a broader context for navigating this turbulent election year.

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. --Timestamps:00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World--Referenced in the Show:Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Join a dynamic conversation about the evolution at Cognitive Investments and the exciting launch of Club CI. Discover how this new community aims to enhance understanding of geopolitics and personal growth. Explore the dual membership tiers designed for both seasoned professionals and emerging talents. Learn about productivity tools crafted to improve personal effectiveness and foster creativity. Delve into the importance of building genuine connections in today's digital landscape and how you can be part of this innovative initiative!

The discussion kicks off with reflections on the October 7th Hamas attack and its implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They explore unexpected agricultural innovation in Iraq amid climate challenges. The role of government support in fostering economic growth in countries like Chile and Ireland comes under scrutiny. Key trends in U.S.-China relations highlight shifting economic dynamics. The podcast wraps up by addressing Pakistan's political turmoil while spotting emerging opportunities amid adversity.

Discussing the historic port strikes in the U.S., the hosts explore their potential to disrupt supply chains and elevate inflation. They delve into the impact of automation on labor demands and protectionist policies in battery manufacturing, contrasting it with China's strategic energy investments. The inadequacies of insurance coverage in the wake of flooding in North Carolina reveal deep socioeconomic divides. Lastly, they analyze Brazil's recent credit rating upgrade and its implications, while highlighting the public's increasing concerns about crime.

Hamidreza Azizi, a Visiting Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, shares deep insights into Iran's precarious regional dynamics. He discusses Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel, revealing them as acts of desperation. The conversation also covers the country's internal political challenges, including leadership transitions and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes Iran's lack of reliable allies, exploring its 'strategic loneliness' and the looming potential for heightened conflicts.