The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Join market expert Rob Larity as he dives into the chaos engulfing the financial world. They dissect the volatile impacts of tariffs and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Rob shares insights on how the dollar's weakness and bond yield fluctuations signal instability for investors. The conversation also touches on corporate strategies amid inflationary pressures, revealing a stark contrast between giant companies and struggling small businesses. With historical context, they explore the future of global investment in a deglobalizing landscape.

Hosts explore the chaotic state of the market through an amusing daycare anecdote. They navigate the upheaval of tariffs and highlight the interconnectedness of global trade, delving into wealth inequality and trust in the U.S. dollar. The atmosphere is filled with both caution and optimism, drawing parallels to a crisis from 'Margin Call.' Political shifts are examined for their impact on market stability, while the importance of diversification and competition in banking leadership is underscored with a fun basketball analogy.

Vance Crowe, former director of millennial engagement for Monsanto and a storyteller, joins for a thought-provoking discussion. Together, they explore the early impacts of Trump-era policies on U.S. and Canadian farmers, the pros and cons of Bitcoin, and the critical role of storytelling in preserving life's lessons. Vance shares his insights from interviewing diverse individuals, highlighting how personal narratives shape beliefs and values across generations. The conversation weaves through politics, innovation, and the significance of meaningful connections.

In a dynamic discussion, guest Matt Gertken, a former colleague with deep expertise in political analysis, shares insights on President Trump's potential third term and its implications for democracy. The conversation delves into the evolving tariff landscape and its effects on global trade dynamics, alongside China's military maneuvers concerning Taiwan. They also engage in a lighthearted debate about political leadership, authenticity, and the challenges of term limits, all while reflecting on the future political fabric of the U.S. and Europe.

Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights and a professor at NYU, dives into the intricate world of trade and political economy. She discusses the impact of tariffs on businesses and the complexities surrounding U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia and Venezuela. The conversation highlights the challenges of navigating current economic landscapes, including the role of Congress in tariff decisions and the implications for global trade dynamics. Ziemba emphasizes the need for innovative strategies amidst the ever-changing geopolitical climate.

Georgi Engelbrecht, a senior analyst for the Philippines at Crisis Group, delves into the nation's pivotal role in global politics. He discusses the complex relationship between the Philippines and China, including the historical context of their disputes in the South China Sea. Engelbrecht also unpacks the political drama of the Duterte-Marcos rivalry and its implications for democracy. He highlights the unique challenges of economic growth intertwined with poverty, offering insights into the country's evolving political landscape.

Geopolitics takes center stage as discussions delve into President Trump's trade policies and their impact on global dynamics. The complex relationship between India and China reveals diplomatic challenges, while U.S. perceptions of European allies provoke laughter and critique. Internal Republican politics highlight the risks posed by safe districts ahead of the 2026 elections. Protests in Serbia spark wider civic movements against governance, reflecting deeper geopolitical tensions. Each topic unravels a layer of how political strategies shape international relations.

Jacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) – Profit recession(13:10) – Copper(16:32) – The direction of the USD(20:34) – Multipolar investing(28:11) – India and Shorting(37:47) – Parisian vibe check--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Tensions rise as discussions unfold about the escalations between the U.S. and Iran, questioning the likelihood of military conflict. Turkey's political shifts spark debates on Erdogan's leadership and corruption. Indonesia grapples with leadership dynamics amid concerns over potential military rule. The conversation then shifts to China’s economic strategies and the implications for global trade. Finally, the hosts engage in a playful geopolitical draft, linking sports moments with significant historical events, revealing the intersection of geopolitics and athletics.

Dive into a lively discussion on the dissolution of the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment and its impact on U.S. geopolitical analysis. The hosts tackle the concept of multipolarity, challenging America's aggressive strategies. They humorously explore Canada-U.S. trade relations through a milkshake metaphor, critiquing perceptions of superiority. Finally, they analyze shifts in Europe's geopolitical landscape and speculate on the future of American influence, all while inviting listeners to engage in a light-hearted debate.