The Jacob Shapiro Podcast A Wild New Era of Japanese Politics
Oct 24, 2025
In this discussion, Tobias Harris, an analyst of Japanese politics and author, dives into Japan's recent surprising election, marking the rise of the country's first female prime minister, Takahichi. They explore political fragmentation, coalition dynamics, and significant policy challenges ahead, such as national security and economic strategies. Harris emphasizes the implications of high public approval amid Japan's pressing economic issues, and the delicate balancing act required in foreign relations with China and South Korea.
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Fragmented Power And A Scrambled Premiership
- Japan's recent leadership scramble left the LDP without a majority and forced intense bargaining to form a government.
- Takeuchi won the party but lost Komeito's support, triggering a 10-day scramble to secure votes and governability.
End Of Dominant-Majority Politics
- Japan now lacks a single force able to command a stable majority, making negotiation central to governance.
- This fragmentation is likely to persist and increase bargaining in policy-making.
Ishiba's Negotiation Gambit
- Shigeru Ishiba tried negotiating across parties to avoid no-confidence votes and temporarily survived as head of a minority government.
- His negotiation skills bought time but couldn't overcome the LDP's deeper loss of public trust.
