Is This a Return to Pre-Abe Fragmentation?

Japan rewired its politics: a power shift, a woman at the helm, and a minority government forced to bargain for every vote. What follows when high approval collides with hard math - aging demographics, weak yen, and defense budgets racing past old taboos?

Analyst Tobias Harris, author of The Iconoclast and writer of Observing Japan, joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack the country’s most surprising election in years - one that produced its first female prime minister and a government held together by negotiation. Expect sharper debates on security, energy, food, and China ties, with South Korea and Washington watching. Is this real generational change or a new face for old factions? The stakes: whether Japan can act before events act on it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:25) - Challenges in Understanding Japanese Politics

(01:05) - Recent Japanese Election Overview

(02:00) - Unexpected Election Results and Political Shifts

(05:45) - Historical Context and Political Fragmentation

(07:29) - Farewell to Shigeru Ishiba

(12:31) - Rise of Japan's First Female Prime Minister

(22:57) - Public Perception and Future Prospects

(27:46) - Understanding Political Longevity

(28:30) - Policy Expectations and Challenges

(32:49) - Economic and Fiscal Policies

(37:39) - Foreign Policy and Relations with China

(43:15) - Japan-South Korea Relations

(48:55) - Japan-US Relations and Defense Strategy

(55:45) - Concluding Thoughts on Leadership

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Referenced in the Show:

Tobais' website: https://observingjapan.com/

Observing Japan Substack: https://substack.com/@observingjapan

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis:

Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp