The Bayesian Conspiracy

We get to back-logged feedback. We Want MoR is now live, back at the old home of the HP:MoR Podcast! Ra, by Sam Hughes (also on Amazon) Helpful links provided by commentor  Lorien: references on air pollution (quick and dirty search): https://www.calhealthreport.org/2018/01/31/teen-exposure-air-pollution-reduce-iq-levels-long-term/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss https://www.alzinfo.org/articles/air-pollution-raise-dementia-risk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/22/climate/air-pollution-deaths.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wrt. medical staff being fine with long hours: https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/news/20180508/doctors-suicide-rate-highest-of-any-profession#1?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Focus Your Uncertainty The Proper Use of Doubt Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:  The Virtue of Narrowness You Can Face Reality The Apocalypse Bet

The Conspirators sort of continue the conversation from our last episode, after meandering around about the meaning of words/their relevance to current usage. Eventually we’ll get to the LessWrong sequence on the Human Use of Words and this confusion will hopefully dissolve.   Comic Relief: Omeleto video featuring Nick offerman Patreon supporter Welf wrote a blog post that they shared with us and we touched on in this discussion. It’s really good if this topic interests you. Ryan Gosling Avatar Papyrus freak out on SNL Jess’s favorite dinosaur What if we had only the bones of modern animals and drew them like we draw dinosaurs? (link with whale, link to book) Wikipedia and other links from Jess Alicorn transgender story? From Jess Skeptoid episode Transgender: Fact or Fiction Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: None! Postponed till next time Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: (Are still…) Focus Your Uncertainty The Proper Use of Doubt Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

Trigger warnings: Gender! Culture Wars! Opinons! Facts? (Also, some amount of tension/discomfort in this episode. Be ye warned.) Please contribute to this discussion! Please keep it non-terrible. Articles that sparked the discussion: The Disappearing Thems, Versus Them, Reducing the Spectrum to a Binary Also relevant: Hofstadter Person Purity essay, and Cis by Default Other links of note… One of the articles referenced in the initial Discord discussion What’s double cruxing? Wikipedia’s 3rd Gender Page (it’s got all the genders!) Recommendations! Brightburn The Boys Chronicle Magnus Archives Hey look, we have a discord! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: None! Postponed till next time Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: (Are still…) Focus Your Uncertainty The Proper Use of Doubt

Elite education institutions aren’t give us Bruce Waynes anymore, and this is a problem. Our article: The Real Problem At Yale Is Not Free Speech Also relevant: The Wayne Republican Tradition, and Against Against Billionaire Philanthropy   Hey look, we have a discord! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable The Importance of Saying “Oops” Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Focus Your Uncertainty The Proper Use of Doubt

In this episode, we try to explain the Slate Star Codex post, Conflict vs Mistake. We hope we didn’t make any major mistakes, and if we did, that it won’t cause any kind of conflict. Links: – SSC: Conflict vs Mistake – Also: Highlights from the Comments on Conflict vs Mistake – Ratfic Rec: Draco Malfoy and the Practice of Rationality – Eneasz Book Rec: Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities – Steven Podcast Rec: Hacking Humans Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? And now there’s a book club happening there! Check it out in the “tbc-book-club” channel. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Professing and Cheering Belief as Attire Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable The Importance of Saying “Oops” Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

Jess and Phoenix tell us about Replacing Guilt. Favorites from the series: “Should” considered harmful and Confidence all the way up Another recommended book is The Courage To Be Disliked Also mentioned – Flint’s water is OK now. Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? And What Lies Dreaming now has audio of the early chapters, with more coming! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) Belief in Belief Bayesian Judo Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Professing and Cheering Belief as Attire Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

In this episode our hosts come together to try and figure out if it’s worth worrying about the possibility that we’re living in a simulation, with a fun twist. We also do plenty of listener feedback. Steven mentioned Eneasz’s book. When I googled the short story Eneasz talked about “Steve Fever” (which was written by Greg Egan), the fifth result was a link to Eneasz’s blog post about the story, which contains a link to the story in it. Jess mentioned a story called “Stupid Perfect World” which you can get on Amazon for only 3 bucks! A link to the Slate Star Codex post: Burdens Steven mentioned the Primitive Technologies channel on Youtube Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Are Your Enemies Innately Evil? Two More Things to Unlearn from School Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) Belief in Belief Bayesian Judo Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

We talk about Cultural Evolution, and why it is so terrible. Links: The Secret to Our Success: SSC The Book Melting Asphalt on Prestige Versus Dominance I, Pencil (About How No One Can Make a Pencil Anymore) Caveman Sci-Fi The Mr. Rogers Documentary Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t Correspondence Bias Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Are Your Enemies Innately Evil? Two More Things to Unlearn from School Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

We talk with David about his question on our subreddit. There’s a lot of other comments and thoughts about the subject at that thread, which you can read here. Sorry about the lateness of this episode, just some growing pains. Related Links: Scott Alexander on the economic costs of racism Jordan Peterson 12 rules for life & maps of meaning Raymond Arnold call to action  The Pi Day HPMOR wrap announcement It’s hard work and sacrifice living in an Amish Paradise Kevin Kelly (founder of Wired, not Popular Science) about the Amish – also his book, what technology wants  Dunbar’s Number (where you can only keep track of about 100 friends) Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Scope Insensitivity One Life Against The World Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t Correspondence Bias Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

The Conspiracy sits down with David Spearman, a long time listener and commenter who told us why we were all wrong about UBI and we figured he should tell you too. Here’s the homework problem David spoke about. The answer is at the bottom. Suppose a firm has to workers: Bob and Omega. It makes two goods: Ultraspace Drives, worth $1000 each (like I said, cost of living has gone way down) and gizmos worth $10 each. Bob can make an Ultraspace Drive in 1000 years and a gizmo in 1 year. Omega can make an Ultraspace Drive in a year and 10 gizmos in a year. What is the maximally productive allocation of these workers?  David also sent us a couple of links for further research if you’re inclined. Jason Brennan’s When All Else Fails: The Ethics of Resistance to State Injustice Glen Weyl and Eric Posner’s Common Ownership Self Assessed Tax and book link [From David:] The “a UBI will be spent which will stimulate economic growth” argument is basically a rehash of John Maynard Keynes’ argument from the General Theory of Employment, Interets, and Money. You can read the General Theory here There are really good summaries of Keynes’ theory as well as really good criticisms of it scattered around the internet, but the most accessible is the Keynes vs. Hayek rap battle videos (part 1 and part 2) Samuel Hammond article “Universal Basic Income” Is Just a Negative Income Tax With a Leaky Bucket SMBC Steven mentioned about not emotionally connecting with the end of the world Denver’s Tiny Home Village Eneasz couldn’t find the super compelling link on air pollution correlating to increased Alzheimer’s risk, but here are two others (One) and (Two) Richard Dawkins “We are going to die, and that makes us the lucky ones” If anyone is interested in Crionics but finds the paperwork daunting, contact Rudi Hoffman! Slate Star Codex review of The Machinery of Freedom   You can buy Eneasz’s novel! He’d be super-pleased with that state of affairs. You can buy it in physical or ebook versions at Amazon, or ebook-only at any ebook seller. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Beware the Unsurprised The Third Alternative Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Scope Insensitivity One Life Against The World Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here! Homework Solution: If Bob makes Ultraspace drives, he makes the company $1/year. If he makes gizmos, he makes the company $10/year. If Omega makes Ultraspace Drives, it makes $1000/year. If it makes widgets, it makes $100/year. Observe that Omega is more productive regardless of what job he takes. However, if he makes Ultraspace Drives, and Bob makes gizmos, the total revenue is $1010/year. Any other allocation of labor will result in lower revenue. If they reverse jobs, revenue is $101/year; if they both split their time evenly, revenue is $555.5/year; if both build Ultraspace Drives, revenue is $1001/year; etc. As long as Bob and Omega aren’t identically productive, Bob can still be gainfully employed. Even if Omega can be infinitely copied for free, additional copies should be put to work on Ultraspace Drives (this does break down if you relax the “production doesn’t affect the price” assumption, but only if you also make the assumption that the cost of producing an Ultraspace Drive is the same as producing a gizmo). This is why “Chuck Norris has a comparative advantage in everything” jokes are hilarious.