The Bayesian Conspiracy

We discuss Sarah Constantin’s recent post Degrees of Freedom, addressing where optimization and free-will conflict. Mentioned in this episode: The parable of The Whispering Earring The Transporter Argument Our episode about Desirism with Alonzo Fyfe Eneasz’s Classic WoW guild – The Tail End (US – Alliance – PvE, eventually raiding Sun/Mon 9-12EST) Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast   LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Universal Fire   — Also, you can hear Eneasz’s reading of the full post here Universal Law Think Like Reality Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Beware the Unsurprised The Third Alternative Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

This is not an episode of The Bayesian Conspiracy. It’s just some additional feedback and informal thoughts on abortion, particularly in the USA. If this is not a topic of interest to you, please move on. A regular episode will air at the regular time. Relevant Links: Our subreddit where people post comments is reddit.com/r/thebayesianconspiracy/ David said he based much of his email from Abortion is Difficult at Fake Nous Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided SSC post regarding whether people really believe what they say they believe about abortion Proposed: the 1980s farm crisis (which was where family farming finally died in America) at some level fed into the development of anti-abortion activity and identity in the same period, by way of agrarian-magical fertility rites. And for a lighter note: Key and Peele teach men about menstruation   Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

We dive into the Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread in a lot more detail than originally planned. We seem to get a bit off track. Stuff that came up this episode: Read Eneasz’s novel, What Lies Dreaming, online here Or preorder the ebook: The short story “The Secret Number”   Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Universal Fire  Universal Law Think Like Reality

This episode Jess, Eneasz, and Steven sit down to discuss… well, you tell us. We’re kind of all over the map here because things have, in the majority, been weird for us lately. We cover some random things about how America is going to shit, how to conduct yourself in public when making an effort not to spook people, and “magic” life hacks.   Stuff that came up this episode: Georgia Heartbeat Bill Doof! Media’s (called The Daly Planet at the time) episode on Alien and Aliens Moridinamael (Matt Freeman) on Spamming Micro-Intentions to Generate Willpower Reddit’s r/askmen thread on What the fuck are you supposed to do when you walk past a woman alone at night to let her know you’re not a murderer? The related book, Whistling Vivaldi and a talk on the subject LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Your Rationality is My Business Feeling Rational Briefly Discussed: Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Universal Fire  Universal Law Think Like Reality   Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

Eneasz has a thing for Andrew Yang He’s ex-goth Yang interview on Freakonomics Quick summary of Fosta/Sesta Archer’s dead hookers Where does Denver’s Pot Money go? Hear Steven discuss Endgame on The Doofecast! Chess-Boxing   LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Priors as Mathematical Objects Lotteries: A Waste of Hope New Improved Lottery   Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Your Rationality is My Business Feeling Rational and there will be a quick shout-out to the Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

Jess is back from their pilgrimage to Rationalist Mecca and Eneasz is dying to know all about it, while Steven tries his best to understand why anyone would want to live there. Brian Caplan on Collusion in the Classroom The Spoon Theory (also as a PDF here, for those who don’t want to wrestle with the hosting websites awful anti-adblocker) Berkeley REACH A Luminator! It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia bit where Mac says science is a LIE! Adversarial Collaborations on SSC LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: “Inductive Bias” Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods Marginally Zero-Sum Efforts Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Priors as Mathematical Objects Lotteries: A Waste of Hope New Improved Lottery Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

Jess is on a trip, so Eneasz and Steven do some more digging into our mailbag (last episode on feedback for now, we promise!). Stick around after the outro music starts because we keep going for another 25 minutes or so! Skeptoid Episode on Fast Food Phobia (there’s a few more related episodes if you find the topic interesting) Patreon supporter David sent us this talk given by Dr. Helen Fisher One of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Youtube videos on Heuristics and Biases (there are others if you search Youtube) Eneasz mentioned a Chrome extension designed to filter out toxic comments LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: “Inductive Bias” Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

We dive into the neglected mailbag Steven referenced this SSC post on the Intellectual Dark Web (see also this prior post) It’s been revealed that James Gunn is back! Johnny Depp is an abuse survivor The incredibly shoddy plot to smear Robert Mueller with rape claims, explained, the Obama fake mutilation, and the Planned Parenthood libel.  Blue Aliens comics! McDonald’s Coffee Suit, which was absolutely legit There are only seven (or six, or three, or one) stories TED talk – getting Better, Faster, Stronger Our previous Transhumanism episode Book – Traffic: Why We Drive The Way We Do As Tom Vanderbilt, the author of “Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us),” noted, “Merging late, that purported symbol of individual greed, actually makes things better for everyone.” The result? A 15 percent increase in the volume of cars moving through the work zone and a 50 percent decrease in the length of the line Book – The Wisdom of Crowds Dvorak Keyboard LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Useful Statistical Biases The Error of Crowds The Majority Is Always Wrong Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

Join us as we sit down with Alexander Wales (returning from Episode 63 about rational fiction and writes rational short stories, like the very popular Metropolitan Man) who is on to guide our discussion of GPT2, a new neural net language model/text analyzer/…author? Discussed in this Episode: Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences Can AI Change Your Mind (AI debate) Alexander is currently writing Worth the Candle! The book Eneasz mentioned, The Monster Baru Cormorant Be sure to check out Eneasz’s book, What Lies Dreaming and Vote for What Lies Dreaming at Top Web Fiction! LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct “Statistical Bias” Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Useful Statistical Biases The Error of Crowds The Majority Is Always Wrong Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

What the heck is CyberChristianity, and can it unite Christianity and Rationalism? Links to things talked about in today’s episode: Our previous AlphaGo episodes – 1 & 2 (poor audio, sadly) AI must decide: Juggalo, or Clown? We previously spoke more in-depth on paperclip maximizes and other aspects of the rise of our coming AI overlords in Who’s Afraid of AI? The Sorcerer’s Apprentice from Fantasia in full Friendship is Optimal The Japanese game show requiring a man to win write-in sweepstakes wasn’t quite as felonious as Eneasz had remembered… he did agree to the initial challenge. Chaing’s Hell is the Absence of God (pdf) The original posts & podcasts on Rationality & Mormonism. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 Lord of the Rationality Hanson’s book The Elephant In The Brain Scott Alexander on Growth Mindset Humans are Awesome, Humans Being Bros   LW posts: Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia? Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger) LW posts for next time: Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct “Statistical Bias”   Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!