The Bayesian Conspiracy

We open up with some pre-episode chatter that I left in, then talk for a bit about Coronavirus before moving into the scheduled topic of Malcom Gladwell’s book Talking to Strangers! UPDATE: Given the situation in Italy, we’re upping our concern. Please increase the emotional volume of the Coronavirus section by about 1.5 levels.       SSC Coronavirus Seeing The Smoke Last Week Tonight on Coronavirus SMBC Steven mentioned in the pre-episode stuff Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Update Yourself Incrementally One Argument Against An Army Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Hindsight Bias Hindsight Devalues Science Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

What conclusions can you draw from the fact that you’re here? The Anthropic Principle – 5 short examples Anthropics and Biased Models – “we can’t use anthropic reasoning on a single side of a model” An Anthropic Principle Fairy Tale Hanson’s “Great Filter” and does the Anthropic Principle affect it? Max Tegmark’s mathematical universe levels New Death Note one-shot chapter Key & Peele get tone confused over texts Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: We didn’t get around to discussing any LessWrong posts in this episode. Whoops! Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Update Yourself Incrementally One Argument Against An Army Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

In this episode we’re joined by Matt Freeman and Wes Fenza! Matt from The Doofcast joins us. Their next big audio project is Kingslingers, but be sure to check out We’ve Got Ward and Doofcast too! Wes writes at livingwithinreason.com and practice divorce and family law in South Jersey. As always, there’s a relevant XKCD. Is Monroe’s Law a thing yet? Also check out Matt’s quick write up he did during the Discord conversation that prompted this episode. It’s an unfinished/unedited short essay, and his thoughts have updated since he wrote this. And I found that Matt Braunger comedy bit about failing at both Ask and Guess Culture (and basic picking up signals) Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: We didn’t get around to discussing any LessWrong posts in this episode. Whoops! Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Update Yourself Incrementally One Argument Against An Army Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

People you may or may not have met before discuss Radical Honesty. (One of those people also has their own podcast–however, it is Very Different From Ours….) Stuff mentioned in the episode: Friend of the podcast Within Reason’s take (recommended read): Not-So-Radical Honesty The official (?) Radical Honesty site: Old and New Admonymous: Anonymous Admonition and Admiration Pact! Magic users cannot tell lies… Webcomic (recommended by Drake): Subnormality (Tells the Truth) Multiamory Podcast: lots of good tools for all kinds of relationships here Reciprocity.io: you check boxes, they check boxes… Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence Conservation of Expected Evidence Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Update Yourself Incrementally One Argument Against An Army

Everyone else is doing it, so why can’t we? Matt from The Doofcast joins us. His next audio project is Kingslingers You can still partake in the SSC survey! If you’re even a casual reader, Scott is interested in your data. He will only mine it for Good. Remember THUNK? They’re a cool youtube channel! Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Your Strength as a Rationalist I Defy the Data! Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence Conservation of Expected Evidence Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

This is a recording of the live stream. Due to technical incompetence on our side, we lost the original audio, but managed to recover the episode due to listener April’s diligence! Many thanks to April! Since it’s a 2nd-source recording of a Discord stream, the audio on this is bad. We apologize for how hard much of this will be to understand. Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

This is a recording of the live stream. Due to technical incompetence on our side, we lost the original audio, but managed to recover the episode due to listener April’s diligence! Many thanks to April! Since it’s a 2nd-source recording of a Discord stream, the audio on this is bad. We apologize for how hard much of this will be to understand. Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

The Live Episode is Sunday Dec 15 at 1pm Mountain time. You can listen in on Discord following this link:  https://discord.gg/zaAubxS?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss This post will update with a YouTube stream as well, once we have that ready.

Eneasz shares his reading of Whiteshift by Eric Kaufmann News story about the CFAR barricading Ted Cruz bad lip reading Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: none, we ran out of time, doh! Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Your Strength as a Rationalist I Defy the Data! Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!

We are joined by Discord user GSV to talk about Legal Systems Very Different From Ours The Podcast Very Different From Ours is available at SoundCloud, as well as GooglePodcasts. iTunes link coming soon. Scott Alexander’s fiction discussed: Samsara, The Study of Anglophysics (audio), Unsong (audio) This Waifu Does Not Exist Brad Pitt in Snatch Pro Se Folk Devil John Oliver on SLAPPs Helpful links provided by commentor  Lorien: references on air pollution (quick and dirty search): https://www.calhealthreport.org/2018/01/31/teen-exposure-air-pollution-reduce-iq-levels-long-term/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss https://www.alzinfo.org/articles/air-pollution-raise-dementia-risk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/22/climate/air-pollution-deaths.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wrt. medical staff being fine with long hours: https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/news/20180508/doctors-suicide-rate-highest-of-any-profession#1?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss   Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast… and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: The Virtue of Narrowness You Can Face Reality The Apocalypse Bet Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: Your Strength as a Rationalist I Defy the Data! Big thanks to David for our intro music! Check out his music and VFX here! We’d like to thank creators of our new outro music from the Sumerki Project! Check out their stuff here!