Hear from Prof. Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, as we dive into the role of models in shaping policy, and particularly their weaknesses.  Models are not neutral – they reflect the assumptions, values, and agendas of those that create and use them. Using the energy system as an example, models can (and have been) used to protect the status quo. In part, this is because many of the models are based on the notions of ‘equilibrium’ and so they simply can’t cope with major structural changes, such as the current energy transition. But it can be difficult for policy makers to switch towards models that are arguably more suited to the job. So, what can we do to supplement the models? One very effective approach is to adopt a structured process of expert elicitation, where we use the insights of experts to uncover vulnerabilities and risks. To bring it to life, we explore how this has worked in the case of the food system. We discuss: The role that models play in shaping energy policy, and how they can lead us astray; How expert judgment and insight can help address model blind spots; and Finally, what are the key lessons for risk professionals? To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: Global Sustainability Institute homepage: https://www.aru.ac.uk/global-sustainability-institute-gsi Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Planetary Solvency Report: https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2025/jan/16-jan-25-planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/ GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: https://www.garp.org/podcast/the-power-and-pitfalls-of-models-in-climate-risk-management Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. Aled Jones, Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University Aled’s work in climate finance was recognised by California and he has received a key to the city of North Little Rock, USA. He is a Co-Investigator on the ESRC Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, the AHRC Debating Nature’s Value network, the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition project and leads the BBSRC Backcasting to Achieve Food Resilience in the UK project. He was lead author on the seminal report on resource constraints to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2013, was made an Honorary Fellow in 2018 and currently chairs their Biodiversity Working Party.

Hear from Eva Zabey, CEO of Business for Nature, as we dive into the complex landscape of environmental diplomacy, and the role of business in halting and reversing biodiversity loss. We know that our economies depend on nature. But with biodiversity loss and climate change both putting pressure on ecosystems, businesses and financial institutions are facing increasing risks. In recognition of this, there is action on the policy front, and with global biodiversity agreements taking shape, the question isn’t whether firms should act – but how they can do so effectively. That’s why in this episode, we dive into the role of business and finance in halting and reversing biodiversity loss, along with some practical steps firms can take to integrate nature into their strategies. We discuss: The evolving policy landscape, including key takeaways from recent biodiversity COPs; The challenges financial firms face in measuring their impacts and dependencies on nature; and The tools and frameworks that can help firms take action. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: Business for Nature: https://www.businessfornature.org/ Nigel Topping on the GARP Climate Risk Podcast: https://www.garp.org/podcast/the-cop28-survival-guide-how-it-works-and-what-to-expect Global Biodiversity Framework: https://www.cbd.int/gbf Science Based Targets Network (SBTN): https://sciencebasedtargets.org/about-us/sbtn Nature Action 100: https://www.natureaction100.org/ Finance for Biodiversity Foundation: https://www.financeforbiodiversity.org/ Speaker’s Bio(s) Eva Zabey, CEO, Business for Nature Eva leads Business for Nature, a global coalition aiming to unify the business voice to call for action to reverse nature loss and restore the planet’s vital natural systems on which economies, wellbeing and prosperity depend. Previously, Eva led multiple projects at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) for 15 years, including leading work on natural, social and human capital measurement, valuation for business decision-making towards integrated performance management, and reporting for investors. She led the development of the Natural Capital Protocol on behalf of the Natural Capital Coalition, as well as the establishment of the new Social and Human Capital Coalition. Eva holds a bachelor’s degree in Ecology from Imperial College London and a master’s degree in Environmental Management from the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL). In 2012, she completed a University of London on-line course on Environmental Valuation Techniques and delivered a TEDx Talk on valuing nature in business.

Hear from Sebastian Leape, CEO of Natcap, as we explore how regulation such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) is pushing nature risk to the top of firms’ sustainability agendas. At GARP, we’ve been benchmarking financial firms’ climate and nature risk management capabilities since 2019, and we see that nature is lagging climate risk by several years. But things are changing, and part of that change is driven by new regulations – such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive or CSRD – where firms are being asked to report on a range of sustainability issues in a lot more depth than they’re used to. Given the complexity, this episode provides a deep dive into some of the challenges facing firms. We discuss: Why nature is lagging climate in both understanding and action; The key emerging nature-related regulations and how they fit together; and Some useful ways for firms to begin tackling these issues. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s Bio(s) Sebastian Leape, CEO, Natcap Seb leads the team at Natcap, a nature intelligence firm on a mission to embed nature into business decision making by helping companies measure, report and act on their nature related impacts and dependencies. Seb’s career has been focused on trying to make our economic system more sustainable. He has worked as a sustainability consultant at McKinsey, helping businesses and governments define and embed climate and nature goals, and also as a policy advisor, teacher, and researcher.  

Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the latest season of the Climate Risk Podcast. As we head into 2025, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2024.  From soil scientists to policymakers, financial experts to climate modelers, we’ve welcomed a diverse range of guests to share their expertise. This episode revisits some of the key learnings from these conversations and highlights the invaluable advice our guests have shared with risk professionals as we navigate the path to a net-zero and nature-positive future. Today’s episode will delve into: Why we need to think about climate and nature together What we learned about the transition to net zero The potential global temperature increases we face The modelling underpinning all these insights To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr  For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com   Speaker’s Bio(s) Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo’s focus to date on climate risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing. Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP’s research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate financial risk management.  She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD characterizing how best to apply probability theory to real world problems.

Hear from Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford, as we explore new modelling approaches designed to better capture the complex and chaotic nature of our climate and economy. We spend a lot of time on this podcast covering the transition to a low carbon economy, which will be driven largely by policies and technological innovation. These policies tend to be based on insights from economics. And our view on the pace of innovation is often informed by expert judgement. But traditional economic models often oversimplify the world, leading to poor policy design. And we tend to underestimate the exponential rate of technological change, making us unduly pessimistic about the transition.  Today’s guest has thought a great deal about both these issues. That’s why in today’s episode we’ll be diving into the world of complexity economics and agent-based modelling, which can help us better navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the transition. We’ll discuss: How agent-based models are very well suited to modelling complex, non-linear systems, such as the economy; How past innovation cycles can provide invaluable insights on what we might expect to see in the transition; and What the models tell us about the appropriate speed of the transition to a net zero world. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/284357/making-sense-of-chaos-by-farmer-j-doyne/9780241201978 Santa Fe Institute’s Office of Applied Complexity: https://www.santafe.edu/applied-complexity/office GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Simon Sharpe: https://www.garp.org/podcast/five-times-faster-cr-240321 GARP Climate Risk Podcast with David Stainforth: https://www.garp.org/podcast/predicting-climate-future-cr-241128 Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science, University of Oxford J. Doyne Farmer is Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modelling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.

Hear from Prof. David Stainforth of LSE’s Grantham Research Institute, as we explore the limitations of climate modelling and the implications for risk management. There are some things in life that we can be virtually certain about: if one throws a ball into the air, it will fall back down. Similarly, scientists have evidence beyond reasonable doubt that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased a lot in the recent past. But there are quite a lot of things that we don’t know with any confidence, giving rise to significant uncertainty when we try to forecast those things. That’s why in today’s episode, we’ll be exploring why climate change is particularly hard to model and predict. We’ll discuss: -        The different types of modelling and models used for forecasting, and their relative strengths and limitations, -        The benefits of adopting a more multi-disciplinary approach to understanding and tackling climate change, -        And the critical need for science to examine climate change more through the lens of risk management.   To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com   Speaker’s Bio Prof. David Stainforth, Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute, LSE Dave Stainforth is Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and an Honorary Professor in the Physics Department at the University of Warwick. Dave carries out research on climate science and its relationship with climate economics and policy. He focuses particularly on uncertainty analysis and on how academic assessments can better support decision-making in the context of climate change. His new book, Predicting Our Climate Future, has recently been published, and is the focus of today’s discussion.

Hear from Prof. Pete Smith of the University of Aberdeen, as we explore the overlap in the challenges from, and solutions to, climate change and biodiversity loss. Climate change and biodiversity loss are often treated separately – in science, policy, and even risk management. But as the connections between these global crises come into sharper focus, it’s clear that understanding them together is essential for real progress. In this episode, we break down those silos of climate and nature, exploring an integrated approach and how it might help us address these challenges simultaneously. We discuss: How climate and nature impact everything from our food systems to our economies, health and security; The work being done by intergovernmental bodies to connect these issues; And how this work can lead to positive outcomes for climate, nature and society. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IBPES): https://www.ipbes.net/ IBPES’ upcoming Nexus report: https://www.ipbes.net/nexus The Joint IPCC-IBPES report on Biodiversity and Climate Change (2021): https://www.ipbes.net/events/ipbes-ipcc-co-sponsored-workshop-biodiversity-and-climate-change Soil: An Invisible Crisis and Massive Climate Opportunity: https://www.garp.org/podcast/soil-crisis-opportunity-cr-041323 Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. Pete Smith FRS, Professor of Soils and Global Change, University of Aberdeen Pete is the Professor of Soils and Global Change at the Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences at the University of Aberdeen (Scotland, UK), and is Science Director of the Scottish Climate Change Centre of Expertise (ClimateXChange). Since 1996, he has served as Convening Lead Author, Lead Author and Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is a global ecosystem modeller with interests in soils, agriculture, food security, bioenergy, greenhouse gases, climate change, greenhouse gas removal technologies, and climate change impacts and mitigation. He was a Royal Society-Wolfson Research Merit Award holder (2008-2013), and is also a Fellow of the Royal Society of Biology (since 2008), a Fellow of the Institute of Soil Scientists (since 2015), and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh (since 2009). He was awarded the British Ecological Society Marsh Award for Climate Change Research in 2014, and the European Geophysical Union Duchaufour Medal for ‘distinguished contributions to soil science’ in 2017.

Hear from Gordon Bennett, Managing Director at ICE, as we dive into theory and practice of carbon pricing and its important role in driving the transition to net zero. Carbon pricing is the poster child of market-based solutions to climate change. The principle is simple: by assigning a cost to greenhouse gas emissions, we incentivize polluters to emit less, and to do so in the most cost-effective way. But there’s a significant gap between the theory and practice. Currently, only 24% of global emissions – about 12.8 gigatonnes – are covered by pricing mechanisms such as carbon taxes or cap-and-trade. On top of that, just half a gigatonne was traded in voluntary markets last year. Clearly, there’s still a long way to go. In this episode, we explore the carbon pricing gap, including: Why it exists, what’s needed to close it; The integrity challenges facing voluntary carbon markets, and how to address them; And how central counterparties can help drive the transition by ensuring transparent, reliable pricing. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: The World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Dashboard: https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/ Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA): https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Simon Sharpe: https://www.garp.org/podcast/five-times-faster-cr-240321 The Oxford Offsetting Principles: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-offsetting-principles GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Mark Campanale: https://www.garp.org/podcast/net-zero-supply-side-issues-cr-220303 Speaker’s Bio(s) Gordon Bennett, Managing Director of Utility Markets and Global Head of Environmental Markets, ICE Gordon has been Managing Director at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) since February 2015. Mr. Bennett is responsible for the sales and business development of ICE’s global environmental portfolio, the world’s largest environmental marketplace. He is a member of the Board of ICE Endex, ICE Futures Abu Dhabi, Spark Commodities and a member of the Strategic Advisory Board of BeZero Carbon. He contributes to a wide range of external environmental and energy market initiatives including a member of the Nature Based Solutions Taskforce of the Sustainable Markets Initiative, the Transition to Net Zero Working Group of the Climate Financial Risk Forum, the City of London VCM Steering Committee, the VCMI Stakeholder Forum, the Advisory Board of the University of Cambridge Energy Policy Research Group and was named Environmental Finance’s sustainable business leader of the year in 2022. Prior to ICE, Gordon spent 12 years at the global energy broker, Spectron, joining as Group Financial Controller and latterly serving as Chief Executive Officer. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales.

Hear from three leading experts in natural catastrophe modeling, as we explore how climate change is causing the insurance industry to rethink their approach to modeling extreme weather. In the previous episode, we discussed the challenges facing the insurance industry from climate change – so in this episode, we’re going to dive into some of the solutions. Since natural catastrophe (Nat Cat) modeling was established in the late 1980s, the predictive power of their models has come from the statistical analysis of historical data. But as climate change continues to push the frequency and severity of extreme weather into uncharted territory, this approach begins to lose some of its potency. In response to this, new ways of thinking about Nat Cat modeling and insurance have emerged, with a focus on better capturing the effects of the changing climate on extreme weather. In this episode, we’ll explore: The power of incorporating physics into the traditional Nat Cat modeling process; The recent explosion of earth system data and the role of machine learning in harnessing it; and How improved Nat Cat modelling can support innovative products, like parametric insurance, and what this means for closing the insurance gap. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Database: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/1/MWR-D-22-0317.1.xml Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/8/mwr-d-16-0429.1.xml?rskey=9h0SUA&result=2 Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Rain Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/search?f_0=author&q_0=Thomas+Loridan Speaker’s Bio(s) Jamie Rodney, CEO, Reask Jamie Rodney is the CEO of Reask, specializing in extreme weather risk modeling and forecasting. Jamie has over a decade of experience in applying advances in extreme weather analytics to the financial and reinsurance sectors. Jamie is dedicated to leveraging advanced technologies to enhance global climate risk understanding and support organizations in navigating complex climate challenges. Based in Zurich, he leads Reask’s pioneering vision in developing a new class of extreme weather risk measurement capabilities that do not exist today. Jamie holds a PhD in Mathematics from University College London. Thomas Loridan, Co-Founder and Chief Science Officer, Reask  Thomas Loridan is Co-founder and Chief Science Officer at Reask, where he leads the development of cutting-edge natural catastrophe models using machine learning to quantify global climate risk. Holding a PhD in Boundary Layer Meteorology from King’s College London (2011), Thomas has deep expertise in atmospheric sciences and computational modeling. His work includes the creation of advanced wind field models for tropical cyclones and the integration of high-resolution data into probabilistic frameworks. David Schmid, Head of Global Data Product, Reask David Schmid is the Global Head of Data Products at Reask, where he oversees the development of products for risk assessment, parametric insurance and early warning systems. With over 15 years of experience in natural catastrophe risk modelling and parametric insurance, David has held roles at Glacier Re, NewRe, and Munich Re Capital Partners, where he contributed to advancing risk assessment and pricing standards. At Reask, David remains committed to developing innovative solutions that address the evolving needs of policyholders, brokers, and risk carriers.

Hear from two leading experts, as we explore how insurance is adapting to climate change and the role of the industry beyond underwriting. Insurance plays a critical role in protecting households and businesses from the impacts of climate change, and with physical risks on the rise, it will become ever more important. However, insurers have also been significantly impacted by these risks, with annual losses from natural catastrophes exceeding 100 billion dollars for four consecutive years. The primary concern is that these physical risks eventually become uninsurable, as we are already seeing for example with wildfires in California, leaving communities without the very protection that they most need. In this episode, we explore how the insurance industry has and should respond to these challenges, including: How insurance modelling must evolve to better capture the physical risks from climate change; The role of insurers in helping clients and policymakers understand and prepare for physical climate risks; and Why adaptation is now a top priority for allowing insurance to be effective and help spread climate resilience across our society and economy. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com   Speaker’s Bio(s) Annemarie Büttner, Lead Climate Risk Solutions, Swiss Re Annemarie leads on corporate climate risk solutions at Swiss Re, helping companies identify, assess, reduce, and report the impacts of climate change to their businesses. She has 10-years’ experience focused on consulting and insurance, working on a range of topics including renewables, natural catastrophes, and parametric insurance. Swenja Surminski, Managing Director Climate and Sustainability, Marsh McLennan Swenja is the managing director of climate and sustainability at Marsh McLennan, as well as a Professor in Practice at the London School of Economics. In her career as an academic, Swenja researched climate risk management and resilience strategies, with a focus on public policies, financial instruments and individual behaviour. She has also held several advisory roles with corporates, regulatory authorities and governments, including the Bank of England and the World Bank.