Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis

Sep 11, 2025

Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College London, discusses the pressing issue of systemic risk in a world filled with interlinked crises. He emphasizes how climate change, geopolitical tensions, and food insecurity are all part of a larger polycrisis. Gambhir introduces a new framework for understanding these interconnected risks and stresses that addressing inequality is vital for building resilience in key sectors. His insights offer a holistic approach to climate and sustainability challenges.

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ANECDOTE

Career Pivot Into Systemic Risk

Ajay Gambhir left finance to work on big global issues and joined government climate roles in 2006.
He later worked at Imperial College on integrated assessment modelling before joining ASRA to address interconnected risks.

INSIGHT

ASRA’s Mission And Priorities

ASRA is an initiative to mainstream systemic risk assessment across disciplines and policy.
Its priorities include building networks, advancing methods, strengthening capacities, and advocating transformative strategies.

INSIGHT

Defining The Polycrisis

Polycrisis describes causal entanglement of crises across global systems that degrade humanity's prospects.
The term forces integrated policy thinking rather than single-issue responses.

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Hear from Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, as we reconsider systemic risk in an increasingly interconnected world.

When we think about climate risk, it’s easy to focus on individual threats - rising sea levels, extreme weather events, or biodiversity loss. But in reality, these risks are part of a larger, interconnected web of crises. Climate change interacts with geopolitical tensions, pandemics, food insecurity, and energy shocks, often creating feedback loops that can strain or even break the systems we depend on. That’s why in this episode, we explore the concept of the “polycrisis,” including:

· Why understanding the connections between risks is key to managing them;

· How a new systemic risk framework can reveal vulnerabilities across critical systems like food, energy, and health;

· And why addressing inequality is essential if we want to strengthen resilience and meet climate and sustainability goals.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com

Links from today’s discussion:

ASRA homepage: https://www.asranetwork.org/
GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Alyssa Gilbert: https://www.garp.org/podcast/how-to-make-an-impact-secrets-to-climate-startup-success
GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: https://www.garp.org/podcast/flawed-models-fragile-systems-the-risks-in-energy-food-policy
Mike Berners-Lee, A Climate of Truth: https://climateoftruth.co.uk/
A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62029-w
Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: https://www.kateraworth.com/
Cascade Institute homepage: https://cascadeinstitute.org/

Speaker’s Bio(s)

Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment, ASRA

The Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA) is an independent non-profit initiative that aims to mainstream systemic risk assessment in policy and decision-making. Ajay leads on ASRA's approach to assessing systemic risks, as well as identifying and curating supporting data, evidence and models.

In addition to this role, Ajay is also a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College London, where he previously worked on climate change mitigation, the energy transition and associated risks, leading a team on integrated assessment modelling of low-carbon development pathways.