The Rate Guy
JP Conklin
The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Sep 4, 2023 • 24min
Labor Day Labor Update
On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.
Aug 28, 2023 • 28min
Why Are We Using The Stars To Navigate?
On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and economic insights, as JP weaves it all together to challenge some traditional views on monetary policy. Links Referenced: 1. The research paper itself: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2787193 2. The indices they created as a result of the research: https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/ Graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter on the homepage under "Latest Newsletter" https://www.pensford.com/
Aug 14, 2023 • 22min
The Tightening Will Continue Until Morale Improves!
On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will the tightening actually continue to 'improve morale'? For graphs referenced check out the Pensford's newsletter.
Aug 7, 2023 • 23min
CPI Will Go Up This Week - Flippa Inte Ut
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP.
Jul 26, 2023 • 13min
If You Can Dodge A Wrench You Can Dodge A Rate Question
On this special episode of The Rate Guy we discuss today's Fed meeting and translate what we think J Powell was trying to communicate in the Q&A.
Jul 23, 2023 • 16min
To Heck With Your Soft Landing
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's Fed meeting, what we expect for the rest of this year and if we can achieve a soft landing. For graphs referenced, click here - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/to-heck-with-your-soft-landing
Jul 16, 2023 • 24min
Progress, Not Perfection
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we analyze last week's inflation data, what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the confusion over why no one is talking about about FHLB advances. Link to the Newsletter to view graphs referenced - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/progress-not-perfection What are FHLB advances? https://www.fhlbof.com/ofweb_userWeb/resources/lendingqanda.pdf
Jul 9, 2023 • 19min
I'm 93% Sure The Fed Shouldn't Hike Again
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why in the world rates would pop up in the face of a down jobs report and why the Market thinks there is nearly 100% chance that the Fed hikes at the next meeting...and why we think that's bonkers!
Jun 25, 2023 • 25min
Powell Seems Intent On Overdoing It
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony in front of Congress this week, how his hawkish comments effected the Market and what he continues to hold up as Exhibit A for why more hiking may be necessary. For tables/graphs referenced click here.
Jun 12, 2023 • 16min
Skip or Pause?
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss CPI, the Fed meeting and how the Market has been reacting the last month to the persception that maybe the Fed won't be cutting interest rates this year. To register for our Q2 webinar this Thursday (6/15 @ 1pm est) click here--> https://www.pensford.com/q2-pensford-webinar-2023 Hope to see you there!
