The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why in the world rates would pop up in the face of a down jobs report and why the Market thinks there is nearly 100% chance that the Fed hikes at the next meeting...and why we think that's bonkers!

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony in front of Congress this week, how his hawkish comments effected the Market and what he continues to hold up as Exhibit A for why more hiking may be necessary. For tables/graphs referenced click here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss CPI, the Fed meeting and how the Market has been reacting the last month to the persception that maybe the Fed won't be cutting interest rates this year.  To register for our Q2 webinar this Thursday (6/15 @ 1pm est) click here--> https://www.pensford.com/q2-pensford-webinar-2023 Hope to see you there!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into the paradox of the strong job report and the Fed's reluctance to hike rates! Despite positive job growth, why is the rate hike's likelihood still in question?  We'll also uncover the complexities of wage inflation, treasury issuance, liquidity issues from the recent debt ceiling debate, and the challenges to our financial stability.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the 5 Reasons why The Fed won't hike on June 14th despite the hotter than inspected inflation data.  If you'd also like to read the Newsletter. Check it out here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-hike-june-14  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of a hike, pause and when the Fed may start cutting. We also touch on the Leading Economic Indicators index and what to look for this week from Fed speeches and Core PCE.  As always, graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford Newsletter at Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss The Pause (tm) and why future Fed moves will not be data dependent.  For those that missed it here is JP's recap of last week's Fed meeting  - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-next-fed-move-will-be-a-cut

Welcome to another riveting episode of The Rate Guy! Today, we're diving deep into the world of the NFL draft in more ways than one. We explore JP's alternate reality as an NFL GM, his embarrassing, but emotionally healthy football rage outlet that helps him stay sane in the midst of football season.  Then we're adding a unique twist by conducting our very own Interest Rate Draft. Our star players? Jerome Powell, inflation, the labor market, fed pause and rate caps. We break down the game plan behind each contender, assessing their strengths and weaknesses. Want to go directly to the Interest Rate Draft? Go to the ~13min mark. Images and graphs referenced can be found here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-interest-rate-draft-2023 Interested in seeing JP's website masterpieces? Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/ https://pleasepausepowell.com/    

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the Inflation report, stagflation and the status of the banking sector. We also touch on some leading indicators you might not be watching. As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter Here is the excellent piece that discussed that Wells put out this week. It is calling for FF to hit 2.50% in Q3 2024 (https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/6a9018a1-5d1a-4649-bb05-d3da7569fc2f)

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss money supply, the jobs report, volatility and the record credit crunch we are currently facing.  Graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford's newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/a-historical-credit-crunch.