The Rate Guy

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs report and more importantly, JP will get his JOLTS report that he so loves! If you missed our Q3 Interest Rate webinar here is the link! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8js3C0zyUiQ

In this podcast, the hosts discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury, and create parallels between economic conditions and prime time TV. They also explore the challenges of TV show scheduling, the impact of inflation data on interest rates, and the upcoming economic projections. Additionally, they delve into the effects of a weaker currency on Japan and Japanese intervention on treasure yields.

Discussion of Texas vs. Bama game, job market nuances, and inflation data implications. Speaker reflects on a personal bet, interest rates, and recent tennis events. Analysis of 9/11 memories, inflation report, and job market revisions. Insights on inflation data and upcoming Fed meeting.

On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.

On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and economic insights, as JP weaves it all together to challenge some traditional views on monetary policy. Links Referenced: 1. The research paper itself: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2787193 2. The indices they created as a result of the research: https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/ Graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter on the homepage under "Latest Newsletter" https://www.pensford.com/

On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will the tightening actually continue to 'improve morale'? For graphs referenced check out the Pensford's newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP. 

On this special episode of The Rate Guy we discuss today's Fed meeting and translate what we think J Powell was trying to communicate in the Q&A. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's Fed meeting, what we expect for the rest of this year and if we can achieve a soft landing.  For graphs referenced, click here - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/to-heck-with-your-soft-landing

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we analyze last week's inflation data, what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the confusion over why no one is talking about about FHLB advances. Link to the Newsletter to view graphs referenced - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/progress-not-perfection What are FHLB advances?  https://www.fhlbof.com/ofweb_userWeb/resources/lendingqanda.pdf