The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into the paradox of the strong job report and the Fed's reluctance to hike rates! Despite positive job growth, why is the rate hike's likelihood still in question?  We'll also uncover the complexities of wage inflation, treasury issuance, liquidity issues from the recent debt ceiling debate, and the challenges to our financial stability.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the 5 Reasons why The Fed won't hike on June 14th despite the hotter than inspected inflation data.  If you'd also like to read the Newsletter. Check it out here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-hike-june-14  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of a hike, pause and when the Fed may start cutting. We also touch on the Leading Economic Indicators index and what to look for this week from Fed speeches and Core PCE.  As always, graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford Newsletter at Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss The Pause (tm) and why future Fed moves will not be data dependent.  For those that missed it here is JP's recap of last week's Fed meeting  - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-next-fed-move-will-be-a-cut

Welcome to another riveting episode of The Rate Guy! Today, we're diving deep into the world of the NFL draft in more ways than one. We explore JP's alternate reality as an NFL GM, his embarrassing, but emotionally healthy football rage outlet that helps him stay sane in the midst of football season.  Then we're adding a unique twist by conducting our very own Interest Rate Draft. Our star players? Jerome Powell, inflation, the labor market, fed pause and rate caps. We break down the game plan behind each contender, assessing their strengths and weaknesses. Want to go directly to the Interest Rate Draft? Go to the ~13min mark. Images and graphs referenced can be found here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-interest-rate-draft-2023 Interested in seeing JP's website masterpieces? Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/ https://pleasepausepowell.com/    

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the Inflation report, stagflation and the status of the banking sector. We also touch on some leading indicators you might not be watching. As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter Here is the excellent piece that discussed that Wells put out this week. It is calling for FF to hit 2.50% in Q3 2024 (https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/6a9018a1-5d1a-4649-bb05-d3da7569fc2f)

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss money supply, the jobs report, volatility and the record credit crunch we are currently facing.  Graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford's newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/a-historical-credit-crunch.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we lay out our current take on the Fed's situation, discuss the widespread layoffs and the upcoming jobs report.    For graphs referenced check out our Newsletter  ZipRecruiter conducted a survey of recently laid off workers (https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/survey-of-recently-laid-off-workers/).  Here's a list of some publicly announced layoffs (https://mondo.com/insights/mass-layoffs-in-2022-whats-next-for-employees/) - Roku layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Lucid Group layoffs: 18% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Meta layoffs: 13% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Twitter layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Twillo layoffs: 17% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Roomba layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Disney layoffs: 3% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Zoom layoffs: 15% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Dell layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - HubSpot layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - PayPal layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - IBM layoffs: 1.5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Gemini layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Yankee Candle layoffs: 13% of office workers laid off (January, 2023) - Spotify layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Google (Alphabet) layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Microsoft layoffs: 4-5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Amazon layoffs: 1-2% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Carta layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Coinbase layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - DirecTV layoffs: 5-6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Salesforce layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Vimeo layoffs: 11% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Goldman Sachs layoffs: 8% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Stitch Fix layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell's primary messaging goals, the market's reaction to that messaging, and tightening credit conditions. For graphs reference, check out the Pensford Newsletter. www.Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss March Madness as it relates to basketball and banking! We talk about the Fed jumping in for the failing banks, the thought process behind the two camps, to hike or not to hike this week, cap prices, and what toilet paper and volatility have in common. It's so crazy right now that it's easy to overlook that we have an FOMC meeting this week!