The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we lay out our current take on the Fed's situation, discuss the widespread layoffs and the upcoming jobs report.    For graphs referenced check out our Newsletter  ZipRecruiter conducted a survey of recently laid off workers (https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/survey-of-recently-laid-off-workers/).  Here's a list of some publicly announced layoffs (https://mondo.com/insights/mass-layoffs-in-2022-whats-next-for-employees/) - Roku layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Lucid Group layoffs: 18% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Meta layoffs: 13% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Twitter layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Twillo layoffs: 17% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Roomba layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Disney layoffs: 3% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Zoom layoffs: 15% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Dell layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - HubSpot layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - PayPal layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - IBM layoffs: 1.5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Gemini layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Yankee Candle layoffs: 13% of office workers laid off (January, 2023) - Spotify layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Google (Alphabet) layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Microsoft layoffs: 4-5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Amazon layoffs: 1-2% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Carta layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Coinbase layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - DirecTV layoffs: 5-6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Salesforce layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Vimeo layoffs: 11% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Goldman Sachs layoffs: 8% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Stitch Fix layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell's primary messaging goals, the market's reaction to that messaging, and tightening credit conditions. For graphs reference, check out the Pensford Newsletter. www.Pensford.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss March Madness as it relates to basketball and banking! We talk about the Fed jumping in for the failing banks, the thought process behind the two camps, to hike or not to hike this week, cap prices, and what toilet paper and volatility have in common. It's so crazy right now that it's easy to overlook that we have an FOMC meeting this week! 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the only thing everyone is talking about, the fall of SVB. We touch on how the Fed may respond, important indicators that they can't ignore and if this could be the first domino to topple. JP pulls from his experience of surviving the Financial Crisis to shed light on what parallels he's seeing and what to be on the look out for.   

On this short and sweet episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what Friday’s Core PCE report did to rate hike odds, what The Fed is doing to manage expectations, and the effects on Caps and the 10T. Our Webinar is this Thursday! Here is the link to register to attend the Pensford quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 2, 2023 at 1:30pm EST! https://www.pensford.com/q1-pensford-webinar-2023 See you there!

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we welcome two of our favorite experts. Paul Peebles, the sage rainmaker from Old Capital and Michael Becker a 15 yr Commercial Real Estate veteran and co-founder / Principal at SPI Advisory, LLC. We discuss current market conditions, the hopes and concerns for our industry and what their saying "survive to '25" means to them.  You can listen to more of their wisdom on The Old Capital Podcast which caters to both novice and seasoned Real Estate Investors by providing genuine insights and practical knowledge. By listening to the interviews with active investors who are engaged in acquiring and operating apartment complexes, you can gain valuable knowledge from their experiences. Additionally, you can learn how they identify, finance, and operate these complexes, as well as receive helpful advice on getting started and avoiding common pitfalls.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell replacing, “Inflation is transitory” with, “The disinflation process has begun." And how this is a signal that that end of hiking is approaching. We also touch on inflation (obviously), money supply and cap rates.  To view graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss...a lot! We touch on last week's FOMC meeting, the impact of real rates being positive, why some skeptics (definitely not JP) are suspicious of the jobs number/JOLTS report, the Financial Conditions graph finally getting some love, and Cap Prices falling.  As discussed in the podcast, here is the piece by Preston Mui - https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/a-vacant-metric-why-job-openings-are-so- unreliable/

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we try to stifle our Eagles excitement to discuss the rapidly cooling economy, what we think Powell wants to see in real rates and why jobs data is a terrible leading indicator to watch. #flyeaglesfly

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the market is pricing in around fed funds, how the 10T could be effected by the crash landing, a reminder about the worst time to lock a rate and of course, THE EAGLES! As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/crash-landing-here?hsLang=en