The Macro Minute with Darius Dale

Darius dives into the intriguing dynamics of the current market landscape, where five out of six macro cycles are on the rise. He discusses the implications of a seemingly 'priced to perfection' market and whether Fed rate cuts might ignite inflation. With a focus on structural shifts and potential CapEx-driven cycles, he suggests that inflationary pressures may be mitigated. This engaging analysis offers insights into what could go wrong in an otherwise optimistic financial environment.

Today’s Macro Minute explores whether the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization threatens our Paradigm C bull market, why we believe it actually supports risk assets, and how 42 Macro helps level the playing field for investors through KISS, Dr. Mo, and mission-driven risk management.

On the heels of the Fed’s latest decision, Darius Dale explains why Powell’s modest easing marks the beginning of real support for Paradigm C. While the FOMC’s message was vague, the shift points toward higher trend inflation and a more growth-focused stance. Darius also tackles a client question on labor force participation, showing how millions of “missing workers” highlight the structural inequality at the core of this Fourth Turning — and why positioning with KISS and Dr. Mo keeps investors on the right side of market risk.

Darius Dale tackles the big question: is this the end of Fed independence? His answer: not yet. Instead, expect a gradual erosion that forces the Fed to deal with the K-shaped economy rather than ignore it. Today’s rate cut is a step in that direction. Darius breaks down the three dynamics to watch in the FOMC’s projections, why gold, Bitcoin, and equities remain the right side of market risk, and how KISS and Dr. Mo keep investors systematic in the face of uncertainty.

Today’s Macro Minute unpacks why the U.S. economy remains resilient, with August retail sales and industrial production both surprising to the upside. Darius Dale explains why the risk of an outright recession remains low, why 2026 still looks set for a stronger-than-expected recovery, and how political battles at the Fed underscore the Fourth Turning backdrop. Tune in for insights on portfolio strategy, quantitative signals, and why gold, equities, and Bitcoin remain key hedges in this regime.

Today’s Macro Minute dives into the accelerating fiscal dominance story. Darius Dale breaks down the latest Treasury Budget data, why “True Interest Expense” is crowding out private investment, and how regime change at the Fed is becoming inevitable. Investors ignoring this structural shift risk being left behind. Tune in to hear why it’s time to stop watching the news—and start watching the forest.

Despite sticky inflation and labor weakness, bears still are not getting paid—because Paradigm C remains in control. Darius breaks down why investors should fade fear, trust the signals, and watch for what a Fourth Turning youth revolution might mean for what comes next.

Darius discusses how recent PPI data contradicts fears of inflation due to tariffs, highlighting a resilient growth outlook. He humorously unpacks the impact of employment data revisions on economic narratives, suggesting they could reshape market perceptions. The conversation also delves into the U-shaped economy, where indicators don't support recession claims. Finally, the episode critiques misconceptions about tariffs affecting GDP growth and small businesses, emphasizing the need for a long-term investment perspective.

Darius Dale unpacks what small businesses and consumers are saying about the U.S. economy—and why sticky inflation and rising capital costs could force the Fed to act. With the U-Shaped Economy still in play, KISS and Dr. Mo keep investors positioned for what’s next.

Today, Darius Dale breaks down the growing political instability across global economies—and what it means for bond yields, Fed independence, and investor positioning. With major leadership shakeups in Japan, the UK, and France, and rising pressure on the Fed from both Scott Bessent and Ken Griffin, the market is being forced to reckon with fiscal dominance and a shifting macro landscape. Darius explains why long-end yields may keep rising, why the Fed’s arbitrary 2% inflation target may be outdated, and how KISS and Dr. Mo help investors stay disciplined in the noise.