The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Is consensus still wrong about tariffs?
9 snips
Sep 10, 2025 Darius discusses how recent PPI data contradicts fears of inflation due to tariffs, highlighting a resilient growth outlook. He humorously unpacks the impact of employment data revisions on economic narratives, suggesting they could reshape market perceptions. The conversation also delves into the U-shaped economy, where indicators don't support recession claims. Finally, the episode critiques misconceptions about tariffs affecting GDP growth and small businesses, emphasizing the need for a long-term investment perspective.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
PPI Undermines Tariff Panic
- The August PPI data signals consensus is still wrong about tariffs and inflation dynamics.
- This data aligns with 42 Macro's Paradigm C: resilient growth with sticky inflation and upside risk to risk assets.
Buy The Dip In Paradigm C
- Buy the dip while Paradigm C remains the modal outcome and until it is officially dismissed.
- Prioritize upside capture in the current risk-on regime rather than over-emphasizing downside avoidance.
Tariff Effects Are Nonlinear And Transitory
- Tariff-driven price effects will be nonlinear across sectors and firms depending on margin cushions.
- The tariff impulse is transitory and will eventually fade, pushing inflation lower again.