The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Markets are allegedly “priced to perfection;” what could go wrong?
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Sep 22, 2025 Darius dives into the intriguing dynamics of the current market landscape, where five out of six macro cycles are on the rise. He discusses the implications of a seemingly 'priced to perfection' market and whether Fed rate cuts might ignite inflation. With a focus on structural shifts and potential CapEx-driven cycles, he suggests that inflationary pressures may be mitigated. This engaging analysis offers insights into what could go wrong in an otherwise optimistic financial environment.
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Equities Rally Amid Hidden Economic Risks
- Global equities hit record highs and credit spreads compressed while the S&P added $15 trillion since April.
- The rally may price near-perfect outcomes even as some see a deteriorating economy beneath the surface.
Bears Missed The Rally By Clinging To Tariffs
- Darius suggests some bearish voices were fixed on tariffs and missed upside this spring and summer.
- He uses this to illustrate how prior convictions can blind investors to changing market realities.
Most Macro Cycles Are Improving
- Five of six macro cycles (growth, inflation, monetary, fiscal, liquidity) are improving and support markets.
- Only positioning is stretched, acting as an accelerant but not a standalone catalyst for a selloff.