Markets, Macro Cycles, and Fed Cut Risks

Despite record equity highs, compressed credit spreads, and $15 trillion added to the S&P 500 since April, the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. Five of six key macro cycles are improving, with only positioning stretched—more an accelerant than a catalyst. Darius also addresses a client question on whether additional Fed rate cuts would stoke inflation, explaining why structural shifts and a potential capex-driven cycle suggest otherwise.