State Secrets

As tensions rise globally, so does the risk of conflict. Poland’s Prime Minister has recently warned that Poland is closer to war than at any time since WWII.  And while Russia’s war against Ukraine escalates with no clear path to peace in sight, other incidents such cyberattacks and drone incursions across NATO airspace are fueling growing uncertainty among European leaders. At the same time, U.S.–China competition is intensifying across economic, military, and technological fronts with some arguing that the risk of military conflict between Washington and Beijing is rising.  But some experts argue the U.S. is already engaged in a “Gray War” with Beijing - without realizing it. In this episode of The State Secrets Podcast, guest host Brad Christian speaks with former CIA officers Dave Pitts and Chip Usher, authors of a recent Cipher Brief article called China’s Gray War on America. Together, they unpack Beijing’s doctrine of “Unrestricted Warfare,” explore the six strategic fronts of China’s current strategy against the U.S., and assess America’s vulnerabilities and options. From the fight for AI supremacy to the dangers of strategic defeat, this conversation is a must-listen for anyone concerned with the future of U.S. power and security.

Former CIA Director and General David Petraeus weighs in on the recent Russian drone incursions, asserting they test NATO's resolve. He highlights Ukraine's remarkable drone innovations, with thousands of daily missions transforming the battlefield. Petraeus also addresses Russia's own advancements and the strategic implications of these developments. The discussion spotlights NATO's coordinated responses and European leaders' urgency for military support and sanctions, showcasing the evolving landscape of modern warfare.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited a warship off the coast of Puerto Rico this week, telling Marines and sailors that they are on the “front lines” of a critical counter-narcotics mission. Exactly what that mission is – remains murky but the statement itself was a clue to the administration’s intent. The U.S. has been beefing up military assets in the region and last week, a U.S. military attack on a boat in international waters raised concerns that rippled through Venezuela and the U.S. Congress. In this edition of The State Secrets Podcast, The Cipher Brief is talking with Renee Novakoff, former Deputy Director of Intelligence for Sensitive Activities and Special Programs at the Office of the Secretary of Defense about what we know and what we still don’t - about the Pentagon’s mission off the coast of Venezuela

Sheetal Patel, a former CIA senior leader and expert in drone threats, discusses the evolving challenges facing the U.S. due to small drone swarms and highlights lessons from Ukraine’s tactics against Russia. She emphasizes the need for stronger interagency coordination and clear authorities to tackle these vulnerabilities. Patel also points out the crucial role of the private sector in advancing drone technology and warns of rising counterintelligence risks from foreign adversaries, particularly China, amid shifting U.S.-India relations.

In a recent opinion piece published in The Cipher Brief, former senior CIA Executive Mark Kelton suggests that the country’s leading intelligence organization has a trust problem both with policy makers and the public. One component of that problem that Kelton argues poses an existential threat to the Agency, is leakers.  Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly talks with Kelton – who oversaw the CIA’s response to the devastating intelligence leaks made by Edward Snowden – about why he believes the future effectiveness of the Agency depends on restoring trust.

Taiwan has launched its largest annual military exercise ever - amid growing concern that China is on the cusp of launching a military invasion. Many national security experts see a Chinese invasion as inevitable. A recent piece published at the cipher brief.com focuses on what Washington will do when it does happen. But first, it’s the Intelligence Community that is on the front lines - charged with gathering as much information as possible about Xi Jinping’s intent.  This week, State Secrets is talking with Susan Miller, who retired just a few months ago from CIA, where she served as the Assistant Director for the Agency’s China Mission Center.  The Center was established in October of 2021, to better address the national security challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China.

Writing a book was something former senior CIA Officer Rob Dannenberg never thought he’d do, but as he started reflecting on the ways he and his former colleagues would celebrate the successful recruitment of a new agent or the end of an operation that he couldn’t talk about, he started thinking about the cocktails he and his colleagues would order to mark the occasion.  Dannenberg recruited former colleague Joseph Mullin, CSW to help him compile not only the best recipes for the cocktails that defined their careers, but also for the stories that make them all the tastier.  

John Watters, a tech executive and former president of FireEye, dives into the pressing issue of rare earth minerals and their impact on U.S. national security. He highlights America's dangerous dependency on China and the potential fallout from recent embargoes. With geopolitical tensions escalating, Watters emphasizes the urgent need for a sustainable supply chain. He discusses strategies for securing these minerals, including the importance of domestic production and the unexpected link between cybersecurity and this critical resource crisis.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainians have used every resource available to fight back. From aid packages and weapons systems acquired from western allies to mobilizing every sector of society to bring innovation to the fight, Ukraine has stayed alive largely because of its adaptations of technology and its ingenuity on the battlefield. As part of a special delegation that visited Kyiv last month – led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus, The Cipher Brief met senior Chief Warrant Officer Joey Gagnard, who retired from the U.S. Special Operations Community earlier this year.  As part of that delegation, Gagnard’s unique take on where Ukraine is today when it comes to its use and development of war technologies like unmanned systems – provided some ground truth about where it may be headed.

Beijing has long said that it aims to be the world’s technology leader but the rate at which it is building data centers – and how it’s using them - is raising alarms in national security circles. State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly is talking with SCSP Senior Director of Intelligence Chip Usher, SCSP Director of Intelligence Libby Lange and Principal Intelligence Advisor at Strider Technologies, Chris Gregg about what a major new report tells us about just how quickly and effectively China is using AI and why that should concern you.