State Secrets

What does "peace through strength" mean in 2025—when AI, drones and great-power rivalry are reshaping the battlefield? In this episode of State Secrets, Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly sits down with David Trulio, President & CEO of the Reagan Foundation and head of the Reagan National Defense Forum (RNDF), to unpack how one of the nation's most influential defense gatherings is responding to a far more dangerous world. Trulio walks through the origin story of RNDF, why it was designed as a bipartisan space for national security leaders, and how this year's forum, taking place at the Reagan Library in California, shapes the tone of debate. Kelly and Trulio discuss this year's agenda - from AI and "deterrence by design" - to fixing the defense industrial base and making acquisition fast enough to compete with China. They also explore former President Ronald Reagan's enduring principles—from "trust but verify" to the centrality of allies and partners—and how those ideas are being stress-tested today in Europe, the Middle East and in the Indo-Pacific.

In this episode of State Secrets, Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly talks with retired four-star Gen. Stan McChrystal, who served as Commander of Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and is author of the new book, On Character: Choices That Define a Life, about what character really means in an era where everything feels political, whether intended or not.

Mike Driscoll, a former NSA executive, dives into the future of information warfare and the importance of winning the cognitive domain. He discusses the evolution of SIGINT since 9/11 and warns about over-reliance on it. The conversation shifts to the power of OSINT, especially with AI, in validating intelligence. Driscoll emphasizes the need for faster decision-making and policy changes to combat disinformation. He also covers lessons learned from Israel's recent conflicts and the critical role of education in enhancing public resilience against false narratives.

Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys joins Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly in Washington with a blunt warning: Western military restraint is encouraging, not deterring, the Kremlin. Budrys explains why Lithuania is raising defense spending to more than 5% of GDP by 2026—the highest in the democratic world—and pushing NATO toward offensive deterrence and denial "from the very first inch." He details Belarus' role as a state-enabled criminal actor, from weaponized migration to smuggling operations using high-altitude balloons that forced Lithuania to shut down its main international airport, and why Minsk deserves tougher sanctions. Budrys also walks through recent Russian gray-zone activity in the Baltic Sea and NATO airspace, arguing that only stronger posture—not de-escalation—has stopped undersea infrastructure attacks and drone incursions. The Minister lays out what a potential Ukraine ceasefire would mean for the Baltics, why Vilnius is committing 0.25% of GDP annually to Ukraine's security for ten years, and how Russian forces redeployed from Ukraine could reshape the threat on NATO's eastern flank. He also highlights Lithuania's energy break from Moscow—now sourcing 75% of its LNG from the U.S.—and its push for tougher economic security policies toward China as it prepares to hold the EU presidency in 2027. A candid, front-line view of deterrence, gray-zone warfare, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.

Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly talks with two former directors of the National Security Agency and former Commanders of U.S. Cyber Command about the cyber threat from China, and just what they think Americans need to know. Retired General Tim Haugh – a new Cipher Brief Expert, spoke recently about the threat with 60 Minutes. He is now also working with investors and teaching at Yale University. And retired General Paul Nakasone is the founding director of the Institute for National Security at Vanderbilt University. Both men have a serious warning for America.

Shawn Chenoweth has one of the most fascinating titles in government, Director of Cognitive Advantage at the National Security Council. Sean explains the concept of cognitive advantage, the challenges of measuring success, and talks about the 'Kill Web' concept, which highlights the interconnectedness of information and cognitive processes in modern warfare.

Silicon Valley Entrepreneur, Author and Stanford Professor Steve Blank has published a phone book of sorts for the Pentagon - at least when it comes to the trickier issue of understanding how the Pentagon buys things – which is a crucial component of future U.S. national security. Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly talks to Blank about his new 'phone book' for businesses trying to sell into the DoW.

As tensions rise globally, so does the risk of conflict. Poland's Prime Minister has recently warned that Poland is closer to war than at any time since WWII. And while Russia's war against Ukraine escalates with no clear path to peace in sight, other incidents such cyberattacks and drone incursions across NATO airspace are fueling growing uncertainty among European leaders. At the same time, U.S.–China competition is intensifying across economic, military, and technological fronts with some arguing that the risk of military conflict between Washington and Beijing is rising. But some experts argue the U.S. is already engaged in a "Gray War" with Beijing - without realizing it. In this episode of The State Secrets Podcast, guest host Brad Christian speaks with former CIA officers Dave Pitts and Chip Usher, authors of a recent Cipher Brief article called China's Gray War on America. Together, they unpack Beijing's doctrine of "Unrestricted Warfare," explore the six strategic fronts of China's current strategy against the U.S., and assess America's vulnerabilities and options. From the fight for AI supremacy to the dangers of strategic defeat, this conversation is a must-listen for anyone concerned with the future of U.S. power and security.

Former CIA Director and General David Petraeus weighs in on the recent Russian drone incursions, asserting they test NATO's resolve. He highlights Ukraine's remarkable drone innovations, with thousands of daily missions transforming the battlefield. Petraeus also addresses Russia's own advancements and the strategic implications of these developments. The discussion spotlights NATO's coordinated responses and European leaders' urgency for military support and sanctions, showcasing the evolving landscape of modern warfare.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited a warship off the coast of Puerto Rico this week, telling Marines and sailors that they are on the "front lines" of a critical counter-narcotics mission. Exactly what that mission is – remains murky but the statement itself was a clue to the administration's intent. The U.S. has been beefing up military assets in the region and last week, a U.S. military attack on a boat in international waters raised concerns that rippled through Venezuela and the U.S. Congress. In this edition of The State Secrets Podcast, The Cipher Brief is talking with Renee Novakoff, former Deputy Director of Intelligence for Sensitive Activities and Special Programs at the Office of the Secretary of Defense about what we know and what we still don't - about the Pentagon's mission off the coast of Venezuela