ASEAN Speaks

In the current bearish market, what type of stocks and portfolio would lead? Has the US markets priced in all possible rate hikes? What is the likelihood of a recession? We ask Chan Han Chin, portfolio strategist at Maybank Investment Banking Group (Maybank IBG). Presenter & Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

As inflation accelerates in some key markets of ASEAN, our analysts at Maybank Investment Banking Group (Maybank IBG) discuss their broader implications on banking asset quality, policy rate moves, and ASEAN equities strategy. 00:29 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:07 - MY inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 07:56 - PH inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 09:06 - SG inflation - Lee Ju Ye 13:00 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 15:22 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 17:58 - PH banks - Rachelleen Rodriquez 20:56 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 23:40 - PH strategy - Jacqui de Jesus 26:00 - Favour quality stocks - Chan Han Chin 30:00 - MY auto without SST - TJ Liaw Producer: Noelle Lim

The Fed hiked interest rate by 75bps, the largest increase at a meeting since 1994. What can we expect in the remaining four FOMC meetings this year? As ASEAN are largely food exporters, what are the opportunities and risks as a result of food inflation? And what’s the likelihood of Laos defaulting on its debts? 00:31 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:20 - Fed ups 75bps - Suhaimi Ilias 10:51 - Food inflation, crisis - Chua Hak Bin 18:25 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 20:50 - Laos to default? - Brian Lee 25:52 - S-REITs winners, losers - Chua Su Tye 28:47 - PH property drivers - Miguel Sevidal 30:28 - ID plantations - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

We highlight some key conversations that took place at Invest ASEAN 2022, starting from understanding the biggest issues that will affect us in the next five years to thriving in an uncertain environment. We see sustainability as the way forward, supported by inclusive and equitable growth. The podcast features: 00:29 - Rodger Baker, SVP of Strategic Analysis, Stratfor 05:00 - Tensie Whelan, Clinical Professor of Business & Society, NYU Stern Center for Sustainable Business 12:50 - Peter Grauer, Chairman, Bloomberg & Founding Chair, US 30% Club 20:06 - Dr Soraphol Tulayasathien, Head of Sustainable Market Development, The Stock Exchange of Thailand 22:13 - Dr Ken Yeoh, Vice-President of Governance & Sustainability, Bursa Malaysia 24:24 - Low Chin Loo, Strategic Advisor APAC, EDGE Strategy 27:43 - Dato’ Ami Moris, CEO of Maybank Investment Banking Group (Maybank IBG) & Chair, 30% Club Malaysia Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our economists do a deep dive on interest rate expectations; how ASEAN remains the cleanest dirty shirt as developed markets struggle; while it is land of smiles again for Thai tourism; and if it's time to return to Vietnam's markets. 00:32 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:17 - MY 2Q GDP forecast - Suhaimi Ilias 09:48 - ID interest rate forecast - Lee Ju Ye 11:39 - TH interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 13:57 - ASEAN cleanest dirty shirt - Anand Pathmakanthan 17:50 - MY banking earnings - Desmond Ch’ng 20:05 - TH tourism - Yuwanee Prommaporn 23:07 - VN strategy - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Analysts based in Singapore, Manila and Ho Chi Minh City—vastly different economies—discuss their outlook for the rest of the year due to headwinds, emerging trends such as shophouses in Singapore, data centres in the Philippines, and satellite townships in Vietnam, and segments that are resilient in the real estate sector. 00:20 - Leonard Tay, Head of Research, Knight Frank Singapore 14:05 - Sevidal Miguel, Analyst, Maybank IBG, Philippines 21:45 - Tyler Nguyen, Analyst, Maybank IBG, Vietnam Presenter & Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank Investment Banking Group (Maybank IBG)

Maybank’s analysts interpret the slew of economic data that came out from Singapore, Bank of Indonesia’s decision to hold interest rate, Malaysia’s inflation that remains relatively low, Vietnam’s economic data, and the broad based recovery of hoteliers in Thailand. 00:22 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 06:11 - SG GDP, inflation - Chua Hak Bin 11:05 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 14:35 - MY consumer prices - Zamros Dzulkifli 18:28 - VN economy - Brian Lee 23:08 - US treasury yield - Winson Phoon 27:15 - TH hoteliers - Yuwanee Prommaporn Producer: Noelle Lim

We unpack Singapore’s slowing growth in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in April since February, and examine the effects of the wheat export ban by India on Indonesia’s consumer companies, and the risk of re-imposition of Indonesia’s palm oil export ban, and if it is time to bottom-fish regional tech champions, Grab and SEA, ending with what will lift the Renminbi. 00:17 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:22 - SG NODX - Chua Hak Bin 08:32 - TH, ID outlook - Lee Ju Ye 13:49 - ID consumers - Willie Goutama 16:20 - Palm oil exports ban - Ong Chee Ting 19:28 - PH monetary policy - Zamros Dzulkifli 23:01 - PH property policies - Miguel Sevidal 25:57 - SEA, tech - Lai Gene Lih 28:02 - RMB weaknesses - Saktiandi Supaat Producer: Noelle Lim

Amidst global markets coming under pressure on the back of US economic woes, interest rate hikes, and soaring inflation, is ASEAN proving to be the “cleanest dirty shirt”? 00:38 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:27 - OPR hike - Suhaimi Ilias 10:14 - Impact on banks - Desmond Ch’ng 12:02 - Bond yields - Winson Phoon 16:02 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 18:57 - Marcos Jr’s win - Jacqui de Jesus 20:46 - PH GDP - Zamros Dzulkifli 23:16 - VN market correction - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim

Unpacking the headlines moving markets and ASEAN tailwinds, and casting our eyes to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) on the impact of global supply chain disruptions, favoured markets as ASEAN outperforms, and impact of Indonesia's palm oil export ban. 00:27 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:25 - Headwinds, crosswinds - Chua Hak Bin 09:14 - CLMV - Brian Lee 16:14 - USD, Asian currencies, RMB - Saktiandi Supaat 21:46 - ASEAN stars - Anand Pathmakanthan 24:40 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 26:13 - MY digital banks - Desmond Ch’ng 29:40 - ID palm oil export ban - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim