ASEAN Speaks

We unpack Singapore’s slowing growth in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in April since February, and examine the effects of the wheat export ban by India on Indonesia’s consumer companies, and the risk of re-imposition of Indonesia’s palm oil export ban, and if it is time to bottom-fish regional tech champions, Grab and SEA, ending with what will lift the Renminbi. 00:17 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:22 - SG NODX - Chua Hak Bin 08:32 - TH, ID outlook - Lee Ju Ye 13:49 - ID consumers - Willie Goutama 16:20 - Palm oil exports ban - Ong Chee Ting 19:28 - PH monetary policy - Zamros Dzulkifli 23:01 - PH property policies - Miguel Sevidal 25:57 - SEA, tech - Lai Gene Lih 28:02 - RMB weaknesses - Saktiandi Supaat Producer: Noelle Lim

Amidst global markets coming under pressure on the back of US economic woes, interest rate hikes, and soaring inflation, is ASEAN proving to be the “cleanest dirty shirt”? 00:38 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:27 - OPR hike - Suhaimi Ilias 10:14 - Impact on banks - Desmond Ch’ng 12:02 - Bond yields - Winson Phoon 16:02 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 18:57 - Marcos Jr’s win - Jacqui de Jesus 20:46 - PH GDP - Zamros Dzulkifli 23:16 - VN market correction - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim

Unpacking the headlines moving markets and ASEAN tailwinds, and casting our eyes to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) on the impact of global supply chain disruptions, favoured markets as ASEAN outperforms, and impact of Indonesia's palm oil export ban. 00:27 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:25 - Headwinds, crosswinds - Chua Hak Bin 09:14 - CLMV - Brian Lee 16:14 - USD, Asian currencies, RMB - Saktiandi Supaat 21:46 - ASEAN stars - Anand Pathmakanthan 24:40 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 26:13 - MY digital banks - Desmond Ch’ng 29:40 - ID palm oil export ban - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim

Preparing you for the week ahead with a slew of updates and analysis. 00:28 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 05:56 - MY exports, RM - Suhaimi Ilias 11:00 - ID GDP - Lee Ju Ye 13:26 - ID palm oil exports ban - Ong Chee Ting 15:54 - MY stocks - Anand Pathmakanthan 20:36 - Potential MY bond downgrades - See Tho Mun Yi 23:42 - TH property - Vanida Geisler 27:15 - PH property & mobility - Miguel Sevidal 28:54 - Regional utilities, ESG - Jigar Shah * * Maybank IBG Sustainability Research team’s first sector report. Producer: Noelle Lim

With candour and humour, in his final interview as Maybank Group President & CEO, Dato’ Sri Abdul Farid Alias recounts pivotal moments at the bank, and discusses topics close to his heart: leadership, culture, digitalisation and sustainability, adding life lessons from his humble background. Dato’ Fad’l Mohamed, CEO of Maybank Investment Bank speaks to him in the inaugural episode of our C-Suite Talks series. Producer: Noelle Lim, assisted by Shirley Ann Lau

In a series of conversations, we discuss the game changing opportunities, notably for solar industry players, as presented by Malaysia’s Renewable Energy (RE) Roadmap. If things go according to plan, RE contribution could increase from 23% of the total energy mix to 31% in 2025, and 40% in 2035. Apart from its environmental benefits, RE increases energy diversity and lowers energy security risk, which is often overlooked until the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We explore how ASEAN could strategically increase its own energy security via an ASEAN power grid linking the Indochina region to Malaysia, and down to Singapore. 00:48 - RE Roadmap - Nur Farah Syifaa’, Analyst, Maybank  03:06 - Opportunities, listing plans - Ko Chuan Zhen, GCEO & Co-Founder, Plus Xnergy 11:44 - Call on Cypark, Solarvest - Syifaa’ 13:31 - Russia-Ukraine, China lockdowns, new growth drivers, green hydrogen - Davis Chong, GCEO, Solarvest 20:50 - ASEAN power grid - Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, Senior Principal Fellow, Energy Studies Institute, NUS Acronyms mentioned: PPA - Power purchase agreements EPCC - Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning LCOE - Levelised cost of energy FiT - Feed-in-tariff NEM - Net energy metering Presenter & Producer: Noelle Lim

In response to rising inflation, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened its monetary policy by re-centering the midpoint of its exchange rate policy band to the prevailing level and steepening the slope, allowing the Singapore dollar to strengthen against currencies of its trading partners. Our analysts discuss the far-reaching implications of this move, as well as their updates for the region. 00:34 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 06:17 - MAS tightening, inflation - Chua Hak Bin 11:16 - SG interest rates and bonds - Winson Phoon 13:50 - SGD, USD - Saktiandi Supaat 19:30 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 21:34 - ID higher fuel prices, Bank of Indonesia moves - Lee Ju Ye 26:10 - Positive on TH consumer finance - Jesada Techahusdin 28:30 - Plantations update - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim

Maybank has cut Vietnam’s GDP forecast for 2022 to 5.8% from 6.7% due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain disruptions from lockdowns in Shanghai. What are the specific challenges investors should take note of although recovery is expected to remain on track in Vietnam? Brian Lee, our Economist, drills down the details. Presenter & Producer: Noelle Lim

Singapore’s Q1 2022 GDP will be released this week. We cover Maybank’s expectations of growth and interest rate policy responses as inflation grows the fastest in this decade. Also, top of today’s research is ASEAN X Macro thematic report on inflation drivers and risks, and our model portfolio strategy for Thailand. 00:26 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:17 - SG 1Q GDP - Chua Hak Bin 07:40 - SGD if re-centering - Saktiandi Supaat 10:51 - ASEAN inflation drivers - Suhaimi Ilias 15:01 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkifli 17:17 - TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 20:00 - TH banks - Jesada Techahusdin 21:36 - TH tourism - Yuwanee Prommaporn 24:25 - TH portfolio strategy - Chan Han Chin 27:11 - More soybean, CPO outlook - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim

To prepare you for the week, our analysts breakdown the latest economic data and reports from Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, and consider their broader implications on markets, revision to outlook and the banking sector. 00:24 - Round-up - Chua Hak Bin 04:52 - MY economics - Suhaimi Ilias 10:09 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 13:12 - Curve inversion - Winson Phoon 16:54 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 19:24 - USD, EUR, CNY, ASEAN, JPY - Saktiandi Supaat 23:19 - ID inflation - Lee Ju Ye 25:53 - ID banks - Rahmi Marina 28:23 - VN economy - Brian Lee 30:05 - VN picks - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim