ASEAN Speaks

The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress came to a close on Sunday, and President Xi Jinping extended a rare third term as the Party’s leader. We discuss the economic outlook for China and its impact on ASEAN in the event of a re-opening, and if the USD has peaked. 00:26 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 04:25 - China - Chua Hak Bin 11:28 - ID macro - Lee Ju Ye 14:43 - VN Dong, reserves, rates - Brian Lee 19:25 - USD view - Saktiandi Supaat 24:15 - Currency support - Andi 26:00 - MYR view - Andi 28:04 - TRUE-DTAC - Wasu Mattanapotchanart 32:05 - TH ESG - Suttatip Peerasub Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

The first episode of our series 'Exploring Islamic Values' aims to introduce the uninitiated to the world of sustainability, Islamic Finance, and the relationship between the two fields. We spoke to the general public to understand their point of view and address any misconceptions they might have.

Malaysia’s upcoming General Elections will be the most exciting with multi cornered fights, and a 40% jump in new voters, mainly the young. Meanwhile Singapore avoided a technical recession but inflation risk remains elevated and another tightening is forecasted. Over at the best performing equity market in ASEAN, Indonesia, our analysts recommend to take profit now. MY GE Scenario 1 win: UMNO-led BN but short of a simple majority of 112. Scenario 2: UMNO-led BN secure better than simple majority. Scenario 3: Anwar-led PH or in some form of a bigger Opposition alliance. Scenario 4: Unchartered waters with a new coalition government. 00:26 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:26 - MY GE scenarios - Suhaimi Ilias 11:23 - MY monetary policy - Suhaimi 12:14 - MY equities - Wong Chew Hann 18:05 - MY aviation - Yin Shao Yang 20:57 - SG economy - Chua Hak Bin 23:54 - ASEAN markets - Anand Pathmakanthan 26:20 - CPO price - Ong Chee Ting 29:50 - PH sugar - Daphne Sze Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts round up their thoughts on Malaysia’s Budget 2023 record spending of RM372 bil in view of the Prime Minister announcing a dissolution of Parliament and the general elections to be held within 60 days. 00:25 - Intro - Ong Seng Yeow 00:58 - USD support - Saktiandi Supaat 03:29 - Plaza Accord 2.0? - Andi 05:58 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi Ilias 09:46 - Oil price, politics - Liaw Thong Jung 13:27 - MY fuel subsidies - Suhaimi 15:26 - MY Budget picks - Anand Pathmakanthan 21:53 - MY debt, ratings - Se Tho Mun Yi Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Amid relentless selloff in the markets, our analysts discuss the opportunities in fixed income, Indonesian and Philippines equities, and “must haves” in a Malaysian ESG stock portfolio that offers low ESG risks balanced with core business diversity.  00:20: Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 04:32 - SG recession - Chua Hak Bin 09:27 - TH interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 12:09 - TH elections - Ju Ye 14:16 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 16:41 - VN Dong - Brian 18:25 - Fixed income - Winson Phoon 22:35 - MY ESG stocks - Anand Pathmakanthan 26:20 - ID equities - Jeff Chenlim 28:37 - PH equities - Jacqui de Jesus Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have raised interest rates higher than expected to fight inflation and manage the currency. Our economists consider the impact on economic growth including a look ahead into Malaysia’s Budget 2023 and the possibility of a technical recession in Singapore while the Sing dollar remains a safe haven currency. We also review the uptick in Singapore’s medical tourism, and Malaysia’s new automotive roadmap. 00:33 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:45 - Fed hike - Suhaimi Ilias 05:36 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi 12:25 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 14:49 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:39 - VN interest rate - Brian Lee 21:04 - SG inflation, SGD - Chua Hak Bin 24:24 - USD, Yen, Pound, SGD - Saktiandi Supaat 27:53 - SG Medical tourism - Eric Ong 29:25 - MY auto roadmap, EVs - Liaw Thong Jung Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts assess how ASEAN markets would react to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) huge decision on Wednesday if it raises the interest rate by 75 or 100 basis points. 00:20 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:13 - ID growth, inflation - Lee Ju Ye 06:17 - ASEAN markets - Anand Pathmakanthan 11:07 - ASEAN bond yields - Winson Phoon 15:25 - RMB - Saktiandi Supaat 18:35 - UK Budget, Pound - Saktiandi 20:50 - Palm oil prices - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

How many more interest rate hikes could we expect from Bank Negara Malaysia following the third hike last week? And what can we expect from Malaysia’s Budget 2023? We also unpack our ASEAN X report on China and the direction of the Renminbi (RMB) and which ASEAN currency is most sensitive to a RMB sell-off, and what the Chinese Communist Party might focus on at its Congress on the 16th of October. 00:37 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:02 - MY OPR - Suhaimi Ilias 05:41 - MY Budget - Suhaimi 08:12 - RMB  - Saktiandi Supaat 11:16 - CCP meeting - Fiona Lim 13:52 - ASEAN currencies vs RMB sell-off - Saktiandi 15:06 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:42 - PH conglomerates - Jacqui de Jesus 19:12 - PH telcos downgrade - Rachelleen Rodriguez 21:13 - VN policy catalysts, picks - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts unpack the implications of US non-farm payrolls data, and major currency movements in Asia as well as the outlook on Malaysian banks, and follow the money of foreign investors. 00:22 - Roundup - Ong Seng Yeow 01:23 - US non-farm payroll, inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 04:56 - US interest rates - Winson Phoon 09:18 - MY, SG government bonds - Winson 10:42 - Yen, Euro, MYR, RMB - Saktiandi Supaat 18:32 - TH deficit - Lee Ju Ye 21:18 - PH economy, Peso - Zamros Dzulkafli 25:35 - PH top picks - Jacqui de Jesus 27:08 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 29:44 - MY foreign picks - Anand Pathmakanthan Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

As the Fed warned that it is likely to impose large interest rate hikes in coming months to tame inflation, our analysts discuss the extent of ASEAN decoupling from a potential US recession, a likely technical recession in Singapore in 3Q, and when Malaysia might hold its general elections now that the tabling of Budget 2023 has been brought forward to 7th October. 00:18 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:31 - ASEAN decoupling - Chua Hak Bin 09:41 - SG technical recession - Hak Bin 11:19 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 15:39 - MY Budget earlier, GE15 - Suhaimi Ilias 18:31 - MYR/USD outlook - Saktiandi Supaat 22:36 - TH equities - Chan Han Chin 24:40 - TH portfolio pick - Han Chin 26:24 - Higher TP for Grab - Samuel Tan Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG