ASEAN Speaks

Preparing you for the week ahead with a slew of updates and analysis. 00:28 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 05:56 - MY exports, RM - Suhaimi Ilias 11:00 - ID GDP - Lee Ju Ye 13:26 - ID palm oil exports ban - Ong Chee Ting 15:54 - MY stocks - Anand Pathmakanthan 20:36 - Potential MY bond downgrades - See Tho Mun Yi 23:42 - TH property - Vanida Geisler 27:15 - PH property & mobility - Miguel Sevidal 28:54 - Regional utilities, ESG - Jigar Shah * * Maybank IBG Sustainability Research team’s first sector report. Producer: Noelle Lim

With candour and humour, in his final interview as Maybank Group President & CEO, Dato’ Sri Abdul Farid Alias recounts pivotal moments at the bank, and discusses topics close to his heart: leadership, culture, digitalisation and sustainability, adding life lessons from his humble background. Dato’ Fad’l Mohamed, CEO of Maybank Investment Bank speaks to him in the inaugural episode of our C-Suite Talks series. Producer: Noelle Lim, assisted by Shirley Ann Lau

In a series of conversations, we discuss the game changing opportunities, notably for solar industry players, as presented by Malaysia’s Renewable Energy (RE) Roadmap. If things go according to plan, RE contribution could increase from 23% of the total energy mix to 31% in 2025, and 40% in 2035. Apart from its environmental benefits, RE increases energy diversity and lowers energy security risk, which is often overlooked until the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We explore how ASEAN could strategically increase its own energy security via an ASEAN power grid linking the Indochina region to Malaysia, and down to Singapore. 00:48 - RE Roadmap - Nur Farah Syifaa’, Analyst, Maybank  03:06 - Opportunities, listing plans - Ko Chuan Zhen, GCEO & Co-Founder, Plus Xnergy 11:44 - Call on Cypark, Solarvest - Syifaa’ 13:31 - Russia-Ukraine, China lockdowns, new growth drivers, green hydrogen - Davis Chong, GCEO, Solarvest 20:50 - ASEAN power grid - Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, Senior Principal Fellow, Energy Studies Institute, NUS Acronyms mentioned: PPA - Power purchase agreements EPCC - Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning LCOE - Levelised cost of energy FiT - Feed-in-tariff NEM - Net energy metering Presenter & Producer: Noelle Lim

In response to rising inflation, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened its monetary policy by re-centering the midpoint of its exchange rate policy band to the prevailing level and steepening the slope, allowing the Singapore dollar to strengthen against currencies of its trading partners. Our analysts discuss the far-reaching implications of this move, as well as their updates for the region. 00:34 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 06:17 - MAS tightening, inflation - Chua Hak Bin 11:16 - SG interest rates and bonds - Winson Phoon 13:50 - SGD, USD - Saktiandi Supaat 19:30 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 21:34 - ID higher fuel prices, Bank of Indonesia moves - Lee Ju Ye 26:10 - Positive on TH consumer finance - Jesada Techahusdin 28:30 - Plantations update - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim

Maybank has cut Vietnam’s GDP forecast for 2022 to 5.8% from 6.7% due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain disruptions from lockdowns in Shanghai. What are the specific challenges investors should take note of although recovery is expected to remain on track in Vietnam? Brian Lee, our Economist, drills down the details. Presenter & Producer: Noelle Lim

Singapore’s Q1 2022 GDP will be released this week. We cover Maybank’s expectations of growth and interest rate policy responses as inflation grows the fastest in this decade. Also, top of today’s research is ASEAN X Macro thematic report on inflation drivers and risks, and our model portfolio strategy for Thailand. 00:26 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:17 - SG 1Q GDP - Chua Hak Bin 07:40 - SGD if re-centering - Saktiandi Supaat 10:51 - ASEAN inflation drivers - Suhaimi Ilias 15:01 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkifli 17:17 - TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 20:00 - TH banks - Jesada Techahusdin 21:36 - TH tourism - Yuwanee Prommaporn 24:25 - TH portfolio strategy - Chan Han Chin 27:11 - More soybean, CPO outlook - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim

To prepare you for the week, our analysts breakdown the latest economic data and reports from Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, and consider their broader implications on markets, revision to outlook and the banking sector. 00:24 - Round-up - Chua Hak Bin 04:52 - MY economics - Suhaimi Ilias 10:09 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 13:12 - Curve inversion - Winson Phoon 16:54 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 19:24 - USD, EUR, CNY, ASEAN, JPY - Saktiandi Supaat 23:19 - ID inflation - Lee Ju Ye 25:53 - ID banks - Rahmi Marina 28:23 - VN economy - Brian Lee 30:05 - VN picks - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim

One of the largest public listed companies in Thailand and one of the oldest conglomerates in ASEAN, established in 1913 by a royal decree, SCG is future-proofing and staying competitive by making sustainability a business case. Pertinently so when cement manufacturing is one of the top sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. CEO of SCG, Roongrote Rangsiyopash, and the CEO of SCG Chemicals, Tanawong Areeratchakul discuss the group’s sustainability plans, potential game-changers, and new opportunities that could emerge and whether the Russian-Ukraine war might delay or accelerate global transition to net zero. SCG Chemicals is going for IPO - date is not fixed yet at the time of recording. Producer & Presenter: Noelle Lim

Our analysts discuss the implications of fuel subsidies more than doubling in Malaysia and exports outlook in view of oil and commodities prices; would the Renminbi emerge as a viable alternative to the USD as the US weaponises the global settlement system; impact of Russia-Ukraine war on the Philippines and Thailands’ economies and policy decisions; earnings risks and high conviction buys in Thailand; and expectations of any policy changes in the Malaysia’s plantations sector following Indonesia’s. 00:22 - Round-up - Chua Hak Bin 06:46 - MY fuel subsidies - Suhaimi Ilias 14:21 - RMB as alternative to USD - Saktiandi Supaat 19:16 - PH policy hike forecast - Zamros Dzulkifli 22:24 - TH GDP downgrade - Lee Ju Ye 25:27 - TH earnings - Maria Lapiz 28:36 - ID, MY plantations policy - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim

Our analysts across the region discuss recent economic data, outlook and investment strategy in view of global inflation, growth headwinds, and China’s flash lockdowns. 00:21 - Round-up - Winson Phoon 03:32 - MY outlook, EPF withdrawal - Suhaimi Ilias 08:33 - SG GDP forecast - Chua Hak Bin 13:59 - SG exposure to Europe - Thilan Wickramasinghe 17:08 - ID GDP forecast - Lee Ju Ye 22:16 - ASEAN fortnight highlight - Anand Pathmakanthan 25:10 - PH oil-driven downside - Jacqui de Jesus 27:56 - MY 5G rollout update - Tan Chi Wei Producer: Noelle Lim