Wharton Moneyball

Neil Payne, sports analytics writer and creator of a leading sports Substack, discusses playoff parity, coaching impact, home-field advantage, and how analytics can—and can’t—explain who ultimately wins in today’s NFL and college football postseason. Cade, Eric, Shane & Adi also analyze hockey plus-minus limitations, Grand Slam betting dominance, Baseball Hall of Fame probabilities, and how NIL deals and the transfer portal are transforming competitive balance in college football. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

ESPN National Football Analyst Seth Walder, and Steven Godfrey, college football writer for Yahoo Sports and The Washington Post and co-host of the College Football Enquirer podcast, join Cade and Shane to examine the NFL playoff landscape through advanced metrics and unpack the College Football Playoff’s surprises, transfer portal strategy, and evolving SEC–Big Ten balance of power. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosts dive into how AI and Bayesian models are revolutionizing sports analytics. They dissect quarterback evaluations and the impact of surprising seasons on team expectations. The discussion highlights the importance of advanced metrics versus traditional stats in MVP races, with insights into the extraordinary impact of coaching. They also explore how AI could transform player evaluations through video analysis. The conversation wraps up with reflections on historic performances and the ever-evolving landscape of sports statistics.

Aaron Schatz, Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy and founder of Football Outsiders, joins Eric Bradlow to explore how DVOA and play-by-play analytics challenge conventional narratives about the 2025 NFL season, conference strength, playoff probabilities, and the growing influence of data in awards voting. Plus, Eric walks through real-world examples of using generative AI to forecast NBA win totals, college football playoff probabilities, and NFL Super Bowl odds, highlighting how modern models apply Bayesian reasoning, betting markets, and simulation-based analytics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bill Connelly, ESPN college football analyst and mastermind behind the SP+ model, joins the hosts to delve into the intricacies of the College Football Playoff. He critiques the seeding process and shares insights on matchups, highlighting the unpredictable dynamics of home-field advantage. Connelly also breaks down key matchups, including James Madison vs. Oregon, and discusses the implications of coaching changes on playoff outcomes. Lastly, he explores the emerging parity in the AFC, questioning the stability of past quarterback dynasties.

In this highlight reel, guest insights shine bright. Annanya Raghavan dives into Google Trends, revealing a surge in WNBA interest and how analytics drives fan engagement. Brandon Copeland advocates for college athlete rights, explaining NIL's evolution and the need for collective bargaining. Jane Leavy critiques modern baseball strategies shaped by analytics and proposes changes to revive the game. Dean Oliver explores NBA analytics, discussing player evaluation and emerging talents like Victor Wembanyama. Each guest offers a unique perspective on where sports are heading.

Kevin Cole, proprietor of the Unexpected Points newsletter and former Pro Football Focus analyst, joins Eric Bradlow and Cade Massey, to explain how predictive modeling, adjusted scores, and power rankings reveal deeper insights into team performance amid one of the NFL’s most unpredictable seasons. Eric and Cade also break down college football playoff scenarios, potential conference shakeups, and remarkable early-season performances in both the NHL and NBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Eric Bradlow and Adi Wyner examine surprising NBA and NFL performance patterns while highlighting the innovative sports analytics research conducted by students—including advancements in expected-goals modeling, rugby decision analytics, and tennis serve evaluation—showcasing how data science and AI are reshaping modern sports analysis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Neil Payne, freelance data journalist, analyst, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss current debates in baseball WAR, surprising developments in the NBA, the evolution of quantitative storytelling, and how emerging stars like Connor Bedard and innovative teams such as the Los Angeles Rams illustrate shifting dynamics across major sports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Eric Bradlow, Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner explore how advanced analytics are influencing modern sports—from reshaping baseball’s Gold Glove selections to refining NFL power rankings and playoff projections—while dissecting how the new 12-team College Football Playoff format heightens uncertainty and reshapes championship probabilities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.