Wharton Moneyball

Election polls, prediction markets, and sports models all face uncertainty, especially when errors move together. The discussion explores how early results can reshape forecasts, why NFL parity makes division races unpredictable, and whether playoff teams can overcome roster weaknesses. It also examines tennis rankings, Connor McDavid’s scoring pace, the Sixers’ hot start, and the college football playoff race.

Todd Rogers, a behavioral scientist and Harvard Kennedy School professor, explores how sports fandom builds social connection. He discusses shared viewing, invitations that bring isolated fans together, seasonal rituals, easy conversation, and the sense of belonging teams can create. The conversation also covers Milwaukee’s contrarian baseball strategy, college football playoff chaos, and NFL parity.

Joe Martinez, MLB’s vice president of on-field strategy and a former professional pitcher, explains baseball’s new automated ball-strike challenge system. He explores why players call for reviews, how two retained challenges shape strategy, and how personalized strike zones are built. He also discusses rule testing, pitch clocks, larger bases, and baseball’s next experiments.

Mike Petriello, MLB’s Director of Stats and Research and a leading voice behind Statcast, explores how the Milwaukee Brewers turn data, development, and patience into small-market success. He breaks down Shohei Ohtani’s timing issues, opposite-field hitting, pitch shapes, Trajekt simulations, and why analytics only work when players and coaches trust them. The discussion also spans uncertain decisions in football and hockey.

Ron Yurko, a Carnegie Mellon statistics professor and sports analytics leader, examines college football’s fast-changing landscape. He explores fairer Heisman evaluations across positions, the challenge of comparing players, and why transfer-driven roster turnover demands wider forecasts. He also discusses teaching sports betting, prediction markets, roster cohesion, and the volatility shaping today’s football predictions.

Samuel Ventura, the Buffalo Sabres’ vice president of hockey strategy and research, brings a PhD in sports analytics and experience with the Penguins. He explores how the NHL’s rising salary cap could reshape contracts, free agency, drafting, and roster construction. He also discusses hockey-wide analytics collaboration, new player and puck tracking technology, computer vision, and hiring analysts in the AI era.

In a league built around star quarterbacks, the ability to survive an injury can decide a season.Neil Paine, sports writer and data analyst, explores how NFL teams can build a more resilient formula when their starting quarterback is unavailable. He examines why defenses, coaching, and the gap between a starter and backup can determine whether a team stays competitive, along with the strategic question of when to play a rookie quarterback.Paine also breaks down Major League Baseball's playoff-seeding problem, where weak division winners can receive advantages over stronger wild card teams. The conversation closes with a look at the Florida Panthers and why an injury-plagued "gap year" does not always mean a championship window has closed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tej Seth, a football data scientist and NFL analyst, separates meaningful Week 1 signals from statistical noise. They explore Baltimore’s schematic shift, Kansas City’s explosive run game, San Francisco’s persistent edge over the Rams, and how turnovers, travel, and opponent strength distort early results. The discussion also previews key matchups and applies Bayesian thinking to surprising performances across football and tennis.

Is this NFL season more wide open than it appears?Brian Burke, Sports Data Scientist at ESPN, and Kevin Cole, Data Scientist at PFF, use football analytics to examine the season ahead. Burke explains how tracking data is changing the way teams measure pass protection and pressure, while Cole breaks down quarterback projections, team strength, and why the league's top contenders may be closer together than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The road to the College Football Playoff is not as straightforward as a preseason ranking suggests.Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and creator of SP+, breaks down the analytics shaping the college football season. He examines why roster turnover creates a wider range of outcomes, how schedule strength affects playoff chances, the difference between the SEC and Big Ten, and the teams best positioned to contend. He also shares what his season simulations reveal about the title race and why a few unexpected teams could break through. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.