Wharton Moneyball Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
Dec 17, 2025
Bill Connelly, ESPN college football analyst and mastermind behind the SP+ model, joins the hosts to delve into the intricacies of the College Football Playoff. He critiques the seeding process and shares insights on matchups, highlighting the unpredictable dynamics of home-field advantage. Connelly also breaks down key matchups, including James Madison vs. Oregon, and discusses the implications of coaching changes on playoff outcomes. Lastly, he explores the emerging parity in the AFC, questioning the stability of past quarterback dynasties.
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Home Field Matters In Playoffs
- Playoff home-field advantage changed college football atmospheres and can swing outcomes significantly. Bill Connelly notes a ~2.5-point home advantage estimate for college games based on his work.
SMU Quarterback's Ear-Covering Moment
- Bill recalls SMU's quarterback covering his ears amid a deaf crowd after a timeout and then throwing a pick-six. That moment illustrated how intense home playoff atmospheres can directly impact play.
Bet On JMU's Conservative Game Plan
- Expect James Madison to play a conservative, third-down-stopping plan against Oregon and look to limit big plays. Don't assume JMU can reliably produce the explosive plays needed to top Oregon without those breaks.